Page 9 - Kazakh Outlook 2022

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic
Outlook report, released on October 13, said it anticipated
Kazakhstan’s GDP will expand by 3.3% in 2021 (up from its previous
forecast of 3.2% given in April) and 3.9% in 2022 (down from its
previous projection of 4%), following a 2.6% contraction recorded in
2020.

The analytical arm of London-based broker Sova Capital commented in
a note in December: “Kazakhstan managed to lower its number of
COVID-19 cases per day by November by actively encouraging people
to get vaccinated. The economic recovery that started in 2Q21 remains
solid, with GDP growth accelerating to 3.8% YoY in 11M21. We project
GDP growth to be 3.9% YoY in 2021 and to accelerate to 4.3% YoY in
2022 thanks to the recovery in oil production and still ample social
support. The expansion of the Tengiz oil field could push GDP growth
beyond 5% in 2023.”

3.2 Inflation and monetary policy

Consumer price index (CPI) inflation in Kazakhstan stood at 8.7% y/y in
November, down from 8.9% y/y in October, according to data published
by the country’s statistics office.

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