Page 5 - Kazakh Outlook 2022

Nazarbayev clan appointees have been disappearing from positions of
influence across the presidential apparatus and business—some
jumped, many were pushed—and Tokayev has conceded that, while he
insists terrorists and foreign forces sought to organise and take
advantage of the unrest, the sparks for the initial demonstrations came
from genuine discontent at the chronic imbalance in the distribution of
the oil-and-metals-rich country’s wealth that built up during
Nazarbayev’s long reign.

No doubt deals will be cut allowing some of those in the Nazarbayev
camp who were hugely enriched to hold on to various assets, but
Tokayev’s followers will be looking to muscle in across many business
and economic sectors and the president will be under real pressure to
deliver some gains for ordinary people. That need might be intensified
should stories spread of human rights atrocities committed by Kazakh
troops in putting down the unrest. There are growing rumblings.

Another difficulty the turmoil may have left on Tokayev’s table is
geopolitical indebtedness to Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Given the
dependence Tokayev showed on Moscow in establishing his authority,
Kazakhstan’s resistance to any Putin ambitions to recreate some of the
“glories” of the Soviet Union could have been severely undermined.

In other matters, Kazakhstan will hope to overcome the Omicron (and
hopefully last) wave of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic before
too long. The country has not implemented any lockdowns since the
early stages of the crisis in 2020, but the mass demonstrations may not
have helped in limiting the virus spread.

The government has during the pandemic stuck to a policy of keeping
the retail sector alive. It mainly relies on Ashyq, a QR-code-based app
that tracks Kazakh citizens’ vaccination status, to set restrictions on
non-vaccinated or infected people’s ability to visit public spaces and
businesses. The coronavirus ‘double jabbed’ vaccination rate in
Kazakhstan currently stands at around 45% of the population.

International observers expect Kazakhstan’s economy to rebound to
growth of somewhere between 3.3%-4.3% y/y in 2022.

The authorities are expected to maintain policies to curb inflationary
pressures in 2022 as the pandemic’s global economic impact continues
to put pressure on prices.

5 Kazakhstan Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com