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Figure 5.3 Sample Scenario Summary
Descriptors SCENARIO A: SCENARIO B:
The Nation's Future is Oil and Gas Benefits Lead to
Dominated by the Restructured National
Oil and Gas Economy Economy
Global • Persistent Economic Structural • Moderate Growth, Some
Economic Problems Progress Toward Restructuring
Development
• OECD Growth:About 2% • OECD Growth: 2.5%
• Inflation Higher:Volatile • Cyclical Swings in Inflation,
Exchange Rates Exchange Rates
Geopolitical • Increasing Protectionism • Growing International Trade and
Relations • Slowdown/Reversal of Cooperation
Privatization Policies • Gains for Privatization in OECD
• U.S.-Western Europe Tensions • Relaxation of East-West Tensions:
Exploited by the USSR Increased Trade
Energy • Oil Demand Growth: I% • Oil Demand Growth: I%
Market • Gas Demand Growth: 2% • Gas Demand Growth: 2%
Structure • OPEC Dominance Gains • Increases in OPEC Power North
• North Sea, Barents Sea
Oil and Gas Sea, Barents Sea Developments
Industry Developments Pushed Pushed
Structure • COMECON Gas Available • COMECON Gas Expansion
• Strong Upstream Operations • More Strategic Alliances
Post 1990 • Greater Push Downstream
National • National Will: Unsure, Drifting • Moderately Dynamic National
Economy • Economic Restructuring: Will
- Few Initiatives Successful • Economic Restructuring: Balance
- Petroleum Sector Dominant Between Petroleum and
• GNP Growth:About 2.5% NonPetroleum Sectors
• GNP Growth:About 2.5%
Technological • Incremental Development: • Accelerated Progress: Integration
Change Fragmented Disciplines of Disciplines
• Norwegian R&D Spending: 1.5% • Growth of Norwegian R&D to
of GNP with Oil and Gas as No. 2% of GNP, with new Priorities
I Priority
• Oil and Gas Technology: Focus on
• Oil and Gas Technology: Focus New Reserves Access
on E&P Improvement and New
Reserves
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