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SCENARIO C: SCENARIO D:
The Country The Country is Driven Out
Struggles i n a
Depressed World of Oil Dependence by
Global Restructuring
• Severe Economic Structural • Strong Growth, Following
Problems, Protectionism Restructuring Adjustments
• OECD Growth: 1.5% • OECD Growth: 3-3.5%
• Volatile Inflation (Some • Relatively Stable Inflation and
Deflation) and Exchange Rates Exchange Rates
• Volatile Tension-Filled World: • Agreements Resulting from Stable
Growth in Protectionism, Political Relations
Nationalism
• Flourishing of Market-Orientated
• Emphasis on Government Policies
Controls
• COMECON Drawn more into
• East-West Relations and Trade Global Mainstream
Deteriorate
• Oil Demand Growth: 0% • Oil Demand Growth: I%
• Gas Demand Growth: 1% • Gas Demand Growth: 3%
• Struggle for OPEC to Survive • Loss of OPEC Power and
• Barents Sea Development
Cohesion
Delayed • North Sea, Barents Sea
• COMECON Gas Reduced
Development Slowed
• Mergers/Consolidations Multiply • Strategic Shift from Oil to Gas
• State-Owned Companies • Privatization of Some State-
Favored by National Policies Owned Operations
• Malaise: Discouraged, Divided • Strongly Dynamic National Will
• Economic Restructuring: • Economic Restructuring:
- All Sectors Struggling - Most Initiatives Successful
- Govt. Support of Energy - Gas More Important than Oil
Sector • GNP Growth: 2.5-3%
• GNP Growth: 1-1.5%
• Stalled Development: Restrictive, • Rapid Progress: Integration, 101
Protectionist Policies Global Diffusion of Technologies CREATIVE
PROBLEM
• Norwegian R&D Spending • Norwegian R&D at 2-2.5% 50 LV I NC.
Overall Declines but Spending - Focus on High-tech TECHNIQUES
on Oil and Gas R&D Constant - Restructuring
157
• Oil and Gas Technology: Focus • Oil and Gas Technology: Focus on
on Productivity/Cost Control Gas Conversion, Artificial
Intelligence / Imaging
Source: Reprinted from: Long Range Planning, vol. 23, no.2., P.R. Stokke, W.K. Ralston, T.A. Boyce,
I.H. Wilson, "Scenerio Planning for Norwegian Oil and Gas", pp. 22, Copyright 1990, with kind
permission from Pergamon Press Ltd., Headington Hill Hall, Oxford OX3 OW, U.K.
