Page 29 - bon-dia-aruba-20211214

A29
world news Diamars 14 December 2021

North Korea’s Kim at critical crossroads decade into rule

(AP) — Too young. Too While still firmly in control, ing his people to stay resilient Un and his elite, it’s an ac- program, which would oth-
weak. Too inexperienced. Kim appears increasingly in the struggle for economic ceptable compromise.” erwise be challenging as the
unlikely to achieve his stat- self-reliance. economy worsens.
Since taking power following ed goals of simultaneously North Korea has been taking
his father’s sudden death 10 keeping his nukes and bring- But the global COVID-19 aggressive steps to reassert While Kim has suspended the
years ago this week, Kim Jong ing prosperity to his impov- crisis has hampered some of greater state control over the testing of nuclear devices and
Un has erased those wide- erished populace. Kim laid Kim’s major economic goals economy amid the country’s long-range missiles for three
spread doubts that greeted out this goal in his first public by forcing the country into a pandemic border closure. years, he has ramped up test-
his early attempts to extend speech as leader in early 2012, self-imposed lockdown that This rolls back Kim’s earlier ing of shorter-range weapons
his family’s brutal dynastic vowing that North Koreans crippled its trade with China, reforms, which embraced threatening U.S. allies South
grip over North Korea. would “never have to tighten its only major ally and eco- private investments and al- Korea and Japan.
their belts again.” nomic lifeline. lowed more autonomy and
Early predictions about a market incentives to state en- “Nukes brought Kim to this
regency, a collective leader- How Kim handles the econo- South Korea’s spy agency terprises and factories to fa- mess, but he’s maintaining a
ship or a military coup were my in the coming years could recently told lawmakers that cilitate domestic production contradictory policy of fur-
crushed by an estimated hun- determine the long-term sta- North Korea’s annual trade and trade. ther pushing nukes to get out
dreds of executions and purg- bility of his rule and possi- with China declined by of it,” said Go Myong-hyun, a
es targeting family members bly the future of his family’s two-thirds to $185 million There have also been signs senior analyst at Seoul’s Asan
and the old guard. That ruth- dynasty, said Park Won Gon, through September 2021. that North Korean officials Institute for Policy Studies.
less consolidation of power, a professor of North Ko- North Korean officials are are suppressing the use of
together with a larger-than- rea studies at Seoul’s Ewha also alarmed by food short- U.S. dollars and other for- “The U.S.-led sanctions re-
life personality seemingly Womans University. ages, soaring goods prices eign currencies in markets, gime will persist, and a return
made for carefully packaged and a lack of medicine and an apparent reflection of to a state-controlled econo-
TV propaganda, has allowed “The nuclear weapons pro- other essential supplies that worry about depleting for- my was never the answer for
Kim to make clear that his gram, the economy and the have accelerated the spread eign currency reserves. North Korea in the past and
authority is absolute. stability of the regime are all of water-borne diseases like won’t be the answer now. At
interconnected. If the nuclear typhoid fever, according to Restoring central control some point, Kim will face
But as North Korea’s first issue doesn’t get resolved, the lawmakers briefed by the over the economy could also a difficult choice over how
millennial dictator marks a economy doesn’t get better, agency. be crucial for mobilizing state long he will hold on to his
decade in rule this Friday, and that opens the possibility resources so that Kim could nukes, and that could happen
he may be facing his tough- of disquiet and confusion in Talks with the United States further expand his nuclear relatively soon,” Go added.
est moment yet, as crushing North Korea’s society,” Park are in limbo. The Biden ad-
sanctions, the pandemic and said. ministration, whose pullout
growing economic trouble from Afghanistan under-
converge. If Kim can’t uphold Kim desperately needs the re- scored a broader shift in U.S.
his public pledge to develop moval of U.S.-led sanctions focus from counterterrorism
both nukes and his moribund to build his economy, which and so-called rogue states like
economy, something many has also been damaged by de- North Korea and Iran to con-
experts see as impossible, it cades of mismanagement and fronting China, has not of-
could spell trouble for his aggressive military spending. fered much more than open-
long-term rule. ended talks.
But meaningful U.S. relief
The modest economic may not come unless Kim The North has so far rejected
growth he achieved for sev- takes concrete steps toward the overture, saying Wash-
eral years through trade and denuclearization. Despite his ington must first abandon
market-oriented reforms was pursuit of summitry, Trump its “hostile policy,” a term
followed by a tightening of showed no interest in budg- Pyongyang mainly uses to
international sanctions since ing on sanctions, which he refer to sanctions and U.S.-
2016, when Kim accelerated described as Washington’s South Korea military exer-
his pursuit of nuclear weap- main leverage over Pyong- cises.
ons and missiles targeting the yang, and it’s unclear if Kim
United States and its Asian will ever see another U.S. “North Korea is not going to
allies. president as willing to engage surrender its nuclear weap-
with the North as Trump ons, no matter what,” said
After basking in the global was. Andrei Lankov, a professor
spotlight at summits with at Seoul’s Kookmin Univer-
former U.S. President Don- Their diplomacy fell apart sity. “The only topic they are
ald Trump in 2018 and 2019, after their second summit willing to talk about is not the
Kim is now stuck at home, in February 2019, when the pipe dream of denucleariza-
grappling with a decaying Americans rejected North tion but rather issues related
economy worsened by pan- Korea’s demand for a major to arms control.”
demic-related border clo- removal of sanctions in ex-
sures. change for dismantling an Kim may benefit, however,
aging nuclear facility, which from the Washington-Beijing
Negotiations with Washing- would have amounted to a confrontation, which in-
ton have been deadlocked for partial surrender of its nucle- creases North Korea’s stra-
more than two years after he ar capabilities. tegic value to China, Lankov
failed to win badly needed said. China is willing to keep
sanctions relief from Trump. The two sides haven’t met North Korea afloat by ex-
President Joe Biden’s admin- publicly since a failed follow- panding food, fuel and other
istration seems in no hurry to up meeting between work- aid, and that reduces pressure
cut a deal unless Kim shows a ing-level officials in October on Kim to negotiate with the
willingness to wind down his of that year. Two months af- United States.
nuclear weapons program, a ter that Kim vowed at a do-
“treasured sword” he sees as mestic political conference “Instead of growth, North
his biggest guarantee of sur- to further expand his nuclear Korea will have stagnation,
vival. arsenal in the face of “gang- but not an acute crisis,”
ster-like” U.S. pressure, urg- Lankov said. “For Kim Jong