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BUSINESS Friday 19 June 2020
Wall Street eyes alternative data to track economy reopening

their economies.
"It's discouraging to see
that over half of states are
experiencing rising case
counts, but in a lot of those
instances they were off of
low levels, so the next few
weeks are going to be im-
portant," said Brian Price,
head of investments for
Commonwealth Financial
Network. "If we get to a
point where ICU beds be-
come stretched to capac-
ity and hospitals start to be-
come stressed, governors
may not have a choice"
in closing economies or
imposing stricter social dis-
tancing, Price said.q

Gary Henderson installs an awning near the Giant Sky Wheel while preparing Canobie Lake Park for guests, Thursday, June 18, 2020
in Salem, New Hampshire.
Associated Press

By ALEX VEIGA strategist at Edward Jones. That's down about 21% look positive."
AP Business Writer "What this high frequency from a year earlier. Horneman also monitors
LOS ANGELES (AP) — The data is telling us is that be- But it's up sharply since April data from Metropolitan
reopening of businesses havior is starting to recover, 24, when the four-week Transit Authority subway
shut due to the coronavi- and that's a good sign for average of daily demand turnstiles in New York for
rus pandemic is fueling op- the reopening, if it contin- slumped to 5.33 million bar- hints about Americans'
timism on Wall Street that ues." rels. willingness to be in close
the U.S. economy is on the The Transportation Security Analysts are keeping an quarters with others, which
path to recovering from a Administration's daily tally eye on restaurant reserva- bodes well for air travel,
steep recession. of people moving through tion app OpenTable too, restaurants and shops.
How quickly that recov- its checkpoints at airports to gauge consumers' will- The turnstile "clicks" have
ery happens hinges on the indicates that more Ameri- ingness to leave home and climbed to the highest
outbreak subsiding and cans are taking to the skies, share space with other res- level since late March, but
on Americans feeling con- though the tally remains far taurant patrons. remain substantially lower
fident and safe enough below where it was a year The latest data, based on than normal, she said.
to return to their pre-lock- ago. a sample of roughly 20,000 The S&P 500 index has re-
down habits. For example, 417,924 peo- restaurants, show the num- bounded about 40% since
For an up-to-the-minute ple moved through TSA air- ber of seated diners from late March. Initially, the
read on consumer behav- port checkpoints Tuesday. online, phone and walk-ins Federal Reserve's vow
ior, Wall Street is monitor- That's down 83% from the remains sharply lower from to provide immense aid
ing the number of people same day last year, when a year ago. The snapshot to keep markets running
moving through airport the TSA counted 2.47 mil- on Wednesday, for exam- smoothly helped lift stocks.
security checkpoints, res- lion travelers. ple, showed a 65.2% drop. More recently, the gains
taurant reservations and Still, the steep drop-off But it's an improvement have been driven by opti-
gasoline demand, among marks an improvement from the 100% decline mism among stock inves-
other data. This information from the same day in April, through much of March tors that the economy can
is particularly valuable now when passenger traffic and April. climb out of its current hole
because conventional sank 96.4%. "We're trying to measure faster than forecast as busi-
economic reports on hiring, Government data also sug- the biggest thing coming nesses reopen.
consumer confidence and gests more Americans are into this pandemic: what's Signs of progress in reopen-
spending can lag a month driving than just a couple the appetite for people ing of the economy have
or more. of months ago. The four- going outside their house?" to be balanced against
"We're looking at them as week average of daily said Megan Horneman, di- the rate of new COVID-19
an indicator of consumer U.S. gasoline demand was rector of portfolio strategy cases and hospitalizations,
behavior, and really con- 7.64 million barrels as of last at Verdence Capital Advi- which have been rising,
sumer trust in the health week, according to the U.S. sors. particularly in states like
infrastructure," said Nela Energy Information Admin- "And what we're seeing Florida and Texas that were
Richardson, investment istration. right now is all those things among the first to reopen