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jetties at Lamu harbour, a small inlet between prevailing circumstances. To give credence by Kenya.
Lamu and the Manda islands, constituted to this lack of commitment, the country has Ugandan oil would be pumped to Lokichar,
the only place outside Mombasa in use as a since entered into other MOUs with both where it would be joined by Kenyan oil for
maritime trading port. In a debate over the Sudan and Ethiopia, in respect to movement the final 850 km leg to Lamu. In early 2014,
Kenyan government’s five-year development of it oil exports. Tullow appeared to support this route,
plan in 1970, the Member of Parliament for Moreover, in July 2010, the South Sudanese expressing a desire for both countries to
Lamu declared that ‘the only thing we can do government had apparently given assurances progress to a common timeline, which
to save Lamu from dying day and night is to to LAPSSET planners that the country would envisaged construction from late 2015 or
establish a second port at Lamu’. export 500,000 barrels per day through early 2016, with oil production and pipeline
After the 2002 multi-party elections that Kenya, once independence had been secured. commissioning about three years later.
brought Mwai Kibaki to power, the Kenyan There were obvious questions over the cost Although oil discoveries in Uganda
government developed a new interest in and timing of these assurances. and Kenya breathed new life into some
technocratic national development planning, These were compounded by a generalized LAPSSET components, they did introduce
with ‘virtually unprecedented priority given lack of transparency and acute problems new uncertainties for others. The original
to the development of physical infrastructure’. with reliable data on the South Sudanese oil LAPSSET plans opted for Lamu over Isiolo as
In an effort to reverse the perceived decline sector. Whoever built the pipeline, based on the location for a refinery capable of handling
during the two decades of Daniel Arap Moi’s whatever model, the costs would inevitably 120,000 barrels per day of South Sudan’s Nile
presidency, planners increasingly turned to end up as a charge against oil export revenues. Blend to meet Kenyan and Ethiopian market
the East Asian developmental models for Would this option be better than paying demands.
inspiration. In particular, Kenyan technocrats Sudan to use the existing pipeline? And how Officials admit that the capacity and location
sought to emulate the ‘path to modernity’ long would it take to build a new pipeline? of a future refinery in Kenya are now subject
taken by Malaysia and Singapore, the Accordingly, there is a strong economic and to further studies. The prospect of more
developmental trajectories of which starkly practical argument to continue using the oil finds elsewhere in the country and in
contrasted with Kenya, despite their having existing Sudan pipeline rather than build a Ethiopia adds to these uncertainties.
gained independence from Britain at around new one.
the same time. The Renardet-Sauti study of Launching LAPSSET
Manda Bay Port, published a year before Moi LAPSSET was officially launched in Lamu
became president, became relevant again. in March 2012. Over the following 12
The raison d’être for a transport corridor months, the final year of Kibaki’s tenure in
in northern Kenya that had been lacking office, the outgoing president once more
in the early 1980s was now identified: attempted to drive the project forward. The
Southern Sudanese petroleum. Kenya played Kenyan government again sought bids for
a central role in the negotiation of the 2005 the construction of the first three berths at
Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) Lamu, where work on port headquarters had The Isiolo–Moyale Road is a road section of
between the government in Khartoum and already begun. the A2 Road in Kenya, connecting the towns
the SPLA. Studies on specific parts of the LAPSSET of Isiolo, Archers Post, Marsabit, and Moyale.
Soaring oil prices and increasing production highway network were funded by The road is a component of the Lamu Port
in the southern oilfields in the mid-2000s concessionary lenders and the runways of and Lamu-Southern Sudan-Ethiopia
encouraged the idea, that an alternative route, the three regional airports were completed. Transport Corridor (LAPSSET) Project. It
through Kenya, could become economically Just before Kibaki stepped down in March connects Kenya to Ethiopia, its neighbor to
viable, as well as economically attractive 2013 he formed the LAPSSET Corridor the north.
to southern Sudanese politicians who saw Development Authority (LCDA), a new
independence from Sudan as their goal. A state-owned corporation, to implement this Global and local forces conspire: LAPSSET
Kenyan inter-ministerial committee began grand vision. undone?
to outline an elaborate corridor, dubbed The general elections in Kenya in March 2013
ROOLA (Road/Railway, Oil Pipeline, Oil brought to power a government that was even From about mid-2014, the LAPSSET vision
Refinery, Lamu Port and Airports), or simply more committed to major development and and the regional oil export project that
the ‘Lamu Corridor’. infrastructure projects and even friendlier seemed to anchor it began to be severely
Almost identical to LAPSSET in its rudiments, with big business than the previous coalition undermined by both global and local
conditions. Underlying apprehension over
ROOLA reflected the opportunities and had been. President Uhuru Kenyatta and the security of the proposed LAPSSET
challenges for Kenyan entrepreneurship in his Jubilee government’s strong rhetorical corridor started to appear justified.
South Sudan in the years surrounding the commitment to African partnership and
CPA. Kenya’s role as the regional base for regional integration made LAPSSET even Attacks in Kenya’s Lamu and Garissa counties
humanitarian intervention meant that many more attractive. for which the militant group al-Shabaab
skilled Kenyans had gained experience of In April 2013, government officials claimed responsibility garnered worldwide
Southern Sudan. announced that a Chinese consortium, attention. These events have raised important
Although Kenyan entrepreneurs were very headed by China Communications questions about the likelihood of attracting
much a part of the post-CPA economy, the Construction Company (CCCC), had won investors and the cost of securing and
capacity of Kenyan industry to sell to South a USD 480 million contract for the initial insuring the proposed vital infrastructure.
Sudan was limited by the poor state of the phase of port construction—the first three These concerns were intensified by a
main road between Kenya and South Sudan, berths. dramatic fall in crude oil prices-from USD
which had been tarmacked during Operation 115 per barrel in June 2014 to below USD
Lifeline Sudan but subsequently allowed to The economic case for such infrastructure 50 in January 2015. This collapse, that
fall apart. Ugandan industry, with its slightly also received a boost from Kenya’s still sustained 5years later, had forced oil
better road link, had a significant advantage. landlocked neighbour, Uganda. After years of companies operating in the region to scale
South Sudan’s likely withdrawal uncertainty over the Ugandan government’s back or even suspend parts of their operations
position on exporting its crude oil, in 2013
and adapt their business strategies to remain
More significant still, South Sudan’s Kenya and Uganda agreed that they would competitive in the new environment.
commitment to the project is in question, work together in an inter-state public–
for a number of reasons, key among these private partnership to develop a refinery in In this radically different context the
being financial ability, particularly given the Uganda and a 1,380 km pipeline coordinated high costs involved in extracting and
transporting eastern Africa’s particular type
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