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Notes to Pages 276–293 441

Franzén (1960) and Kvarning and Ohrelius (1992) for analyses of the warship
Wasa, specifically; see also the online source http://hem.bredband.net/johava/
WASAe.htm#lista.
22. Cohen and Gooch (1991) and Macksey (1998). The disastrous Operation Market
Garden is described in the book A Bridge Too Far (Ryan, 1974).
23. Hutchins (1995).
24. Edmondson (2004a, 2004b), Firth-Cozens (2001) and Wiig and Aase (2007).
25. Edmondson (2004a, p. ii3).
26. Duffey and Saull (2003).
27. The economic learning curve literature began with a study of the production of
B17 Flying Fortress bombers. Mishina (1999) has re-analyzed the data from the
original study. For more recent economic studies that use the learning curve as
an analytical tool, see, e.g., Mitchell (2000), Uzumeri and Nembhard (1998) and
Auerswald, Kauffman, Lobo and Shell (2000).
28. Amalberti (2001, p. 110).
29. Mitrovic and Ohlsson (1999), Mitrovic, Ohlsson and Martin (2006), Ohlsson
(1986, 1987c, 1991, 1992d, 1992h, 1996b) and Ohlsson and Mitrovic (2006, 2007).
30. Bernstein (2004, Figure 12.1).
31. Diamond (2005).

Chapter 9. The Formation of Belief

1. Quine (1951, pp. 40).
2. The specific arguments given by Aristotle are that (a) if the Earth was created
by pieces of earth moving toward the center of the universe (as we would call
it now), then a sphere will result; (b) “the fact that the motions of heavy bod-
ies always make equal angles, and are not parallel,” an argument that is hard to
follow; (c) in eclipses, the outline of the Earth’s shadow on the moon is always
curved, and only spheres cast curved shadows in all directions; (d) as one moves
north or south, the star constellations change; and (e) there are elephants in both
“the parts about India,” i.e., east of Greece, and “the parts about the pillars of
Herculus,” possibly areas of North Africa west of Greece, suggesting that these
parts are geographically adjacent, as they could be if the Earth were spherical but
a lot smaller than it is. Aristotle, On the heavens (De caelo), II.297a10–298a20.
For Eratosthenes’ attempt to measure the size of the Earth, see Fischer (1975) and
Newton (1980). See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wik/Flat.Earth.
3. See Notes 19, 20 and 21, this chapter, for references to empirical studies.
4. As pointed out in Part III, the propositional theory of knowledge has not suc-
ceeded as an epistemological theory, in the sense that there is no consensus
among epistemologists as to what a proposition is and what it means for a prop-
osition to be true or false. In this chapter, propositions are whatever knowledge
structures encode declarative knowledge in human memory, and “true” and
“false” stand for a person’s subjective mental state regarding the status of a prop-
osition. See Ohlsson (1994) for a definition of the distinction between declara-
tive and practical (or procedural) knowledge, and Griffin and Ohlsson (2001)
for a discussion of the relation between knowledge and belief. The approach to