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208 CHAPTER 6 • PRoCEss TECHnology sTRATEgy

being displaced by technology. The obvious examples of work that is difficult to automate are
the type of management tasks that involve decision making based on judgement and insight –
teaching small children, diagnosing complex medical conditions and so on. However, the future
may hold a less certain future for such jobs. As the convenience of data collection and analysis
becomes more sophisticated, and process knowledge increases, it becomes easier to break more
types of work down into routine constituents, which allows them to be automated. Carl Benedikt
Frey and Michael Osborne, of the University of Oxford, maintain that the range of jobs that are
likely to be automated is far higher than many assume, especially traditionally white-collar jobs
such as accountancy, legal work, technical writing and (even) teaching. It is not simply that tech-
nology is getting cleverer; in addition it can exploit the capability to access far more data. Medi-
cal samples can be analysed cheaper and faster by image-processing software than by laboratory
technicians, case precedents can be sourced by ‘text-mining’ programs more extensively than
by paralegals and computers can even turn out new stories based on sports results or financial
data. Frey and Osborne go so far as to estimate the probability that technology will mean job
losses for certain jobs in the next two decades (bravely, because such forecasting is notoriously
difficult). Amongst jobs most at risk are telemarketers (0.99, where 1.0 = certainty), accountants
and auditors (0.94), retail salespersons (0.92), technical writers (0.89) and retail estate agents
(0.86). Those jobs least likely to be replaced include actors (0.37), firefighters (0.17), editors (0.06),
chemical engineers (0.02), athletic trainers (0.007) and dentists (0.004).

the product–process matrix

Generally, the characteristics of process technology affect cost and flexibility, as shown
in Figure 6.5. All of the three technology dimensions described above are strongly
related. For example, the larger the unit of capacity, the more likely it is to be capital-
rather than labour-intensive; this gives more opportunity for high coupling between
its various parts. Conversely, small-scale technologies, combined with highly skilled
staff, tend to be more flexible than large-scale, capital-intensive, closely coupled sys-
tems. As a result, these systems can cope with a high degree of product variety or service

Figure 6.5 the three dimensions of process technology are often closely linked

HIGH LOW
SCALE
Few, large Many,
units of small units
technology of technology
Process AUTOMATION Process
(technology (technology
plus humans) plus humans)
has low acuity has high acuity
and judgement and judgement
COUPLING
Technology is Technology is
integrated separated

Flexibility
performance
Cost
performance

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