Page 27 - CCFA Journal - Tenth Issue

加中金融 数学建模 Math Modeling
加中金融

YoY CPI 是一种常用的通膨测量指标，因为它提供了一个关于物价变动率的特定时期的清晰图片。它也对于比较不同国家
或地区的通膨率以及监测通膨随时间的发展非常有用。

Figure 2. YoY CPI

Seasonality

Inflation refers to the general increase in prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. Seasonality refers to
regular fluctuations in data that occur at specific times during the year. For example, the USD CPI uses X-13ARIMA-SEATS (auto-
regressive integrated moving average) seasonal adjustment software developed by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in 2013.

Figure 3. CPI Seasonality

It's important to note that while seasonality can provide useful information, it is only one factor that affects inflation and other
factors such as monetary policy, economic growth, and global events must also be taken into consideration when making inflation
forecasts.

季节性波动

通膨是指经济中商品和服务价格在一定时期内的总体上涨。季节性是指在一年中特定时期出现的数据波动。例如，美元
CPI 使用美国人口普查局于 2013 年开发的 X-13ARIMA-SEATS（自回归整合移动平均）季节调整软件。

需要注意的是，虽然季节性可以提供有用的信息，但它仅是影响通膨的因素之一，在做通膨预测时还必须考虑货币政策、
经济增长和全球事件等其他因素。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE March 2023
Page 27 第27页