Page 32 - CCFA Journal - Tenth Issue

经济论坛 Economics Forum 加中金融

The Challenges of Accelerated Aging

老龄化加速的挑战

Li Xunlei, Chief Economist of Qilu Securities (Shanghai) Asset Management Co., Ltd./Zhongtai
Securities Co., Ltd.

【作者】李迅雷， 齐鲁证券（上海）资产管理有限公司/中泰证券股份有限公司首席经
济学家

2021 年，中国 65 岁以上人口占总人口的比重超过 14%，步入深度老龄化阶段，即中国
有超过两亿人的年龄已经跨越了 65 岁。全球 65 岁以上人口的占比为 10%， 故中国的老
龄化程度已经大幅超过全球平均水平了。可能有人认为，老龄化问题属于灰犀牛，早
已存在，既不可改变，也无需过虑。但我认为，中国的老龄化进程来势凶猛，不同于
西方的老龄化进程，甚至比日本更快，其对经济社会的影响，还没有被充分认识，需要
引起足够重视。

In 2021, those over the age of 65 accounted for more than 14% of China’s total population, a stage of deep aging with more than
200 million people in that demographic. With 10% of the world’s population over the age of 65, China’s aging rate is much higher
than the global average. Some people may think that the problem of aging belongs to the gray rhinoceros. It has already existed,
cannot be changed and there is no need to worry about it. However, in my opinion, China's aging process will come must faster
than the West and even Japan. The impact on the economy and society has not been fully recognized and more attention is needed.

为何中国的老龄化进程会加速？ Why is China's aging process accelerating?

我国《老年人权益保障法》第 2 条规定老年人的年龄起点 According to China’s “Law on the Protection of the Rights and
标准是 60 周岁。即凡年满 60 周岁的中华人民共和国公民 Interests of the Elderly”, the starting age standard for the
都属于老年人，而国际标准为 65 周岁以上。而中国第二 elderly is 60. while the international standard is 65. The
次婴儿潮就是从 1962 年开始的，持续时间超过 10 年，当 second baby boom in China started in 1962 and lasted for
more than 10 years. There were more than 25 million
年新生婴儿超过 2500 万，1963 年则接近 3000 万。
newborn babies that year, and nearly 30 million in 1963.
这就意味着，按照国内标准，今年将有接近 2500 万人成 This means nearly 25 million people will become a senior
为老年人，明年则接近 3000 万；即便按照国际标准，从 citizen this year, and nearly 30 million next year. China's aging
2027 年起中国的老龄化进程也将加速，至 2030 年，中国 process will accelerate from 2027. By 2030, more than 20% of
65 周岁以上人口占比将超过 20%，步入所谓的超老龄化 China’s population will be over the age of 65, entering a so-
社会。 called super-aging society.

因此，从深度老龄化到超老龄化社会，中国预计只需要 9 It is estimated that China will only need 9 years to transition
年时间，相比较而言，日本从深度老龄化社会过渡到超 from a deeply aging society to a super-aging society. In
老龄化社会（1994 年-2006 年），用时 12 年。德国老龄人 comparison, it took Japan 12 years (1994-2006). Germany
口占比在 1972 年到达 14%，36 年后（2008 年）再次突破 reached 14% in 1972 and exceeded 20% again 36 years later
20%，进入超老龄化阶段。法国从1990年步入深度老龄化 (2008), entering the super-aging stage. It took 28 years for
社会，到 2018 年达到超老龄化社会，也用了 28 年。 France.

从已经成为超老龄化社会和正在迈向超老龄化社会的经 Among those countries that have become and are moving
济体看，中国从深度老龄化到超老龄化的进程无疑是最 towards a super-aging society, China is undoubtedly one of
快的之一（另一个国家将是韩国），其原因很简单，一 the fastest (the other will be South Korea). The reasons are
是我国从上世纪 60 年代之前实施鼓励生育政策，到 70 年 simple. First, China implemented a family-friendly policy
代以后实施计划生育政策，乃至独生子女政策，使得出 before the 1960s, and then implemented the family planning
and the one-child policy after the 1970s. This caused the
生人口数量从陡增到骤减，产生人口结构类似“头重脚 number of births to plummet precipitously, resulting in a “top-
轻”的扭曲；二是随着生活保障和医疗水平的提升，预 heavy” population structure. Second, with improving living
期寿命大幅提升。 security and medical care, life expectancy also saw a

significant increase.

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