Page 35 - CCFA Journal - Tenth Issue

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图 4 全球主要经济体杠杆率（%，2018 年）
来源：WIND，中泰证券研究所
从上图可见，我国的宏观杠杆率水平已经接近发达国家，
远高于新兴经济体，也就是说，在“未富先老”的同时，
还存在“未富先债”问题。而且，在固定资产投资的占
比中，民间投资的占比在下降，国有投资的占比在上升，
其背后的原因就是投资回报率下降。例如，基建投资回
报不断下降，目前已经低于专项债融资成本。再如，2020
年以来，专项债资金用于土储、棚改等项目受到较大限
制，主要通过城投平台用于基建项目。城投平台投入资
本回报率（ROIC）的中位数已经从 2011 年的 3.1%降至
2020 年的 1.3%，明显低于专项债平均发行利率，从侧面
解释了专项债资金使用效率的下降。
今年基建投资增速超高，1-10 月份同比增长 8.7%，而
2018-2021 年基建投资增速则出现断崖式回落，说明随着
房地产开发投资增速的大幅回落，基建投资事实上成为
逆周期政策的主要发力点。而房地产投资增速之所以出
现大幅回落，是因为销售面积的回落幅度更大，今年 1-10
月份住宅销售面积同比下降 25.5%。
房地产的繁荣，依托于需求，但人口老龄化加速，不仅
城镇化进程放缓，而且也会导致年轻人占总人口的比重
下降，这从两个方面都会终结房地产持续 20 余年的上行
周期。而且，房地产的需求下降又会拖累制造业的投资
增长，因此，未来固定资产投资增速也会呈现下行趋势。
老龄化加速对出口的负面影响主要体现在劳动力成本的
上升上。近年来，我国也出现了少数产业外迁现象，这
主要是我国老龄化导致的劳动年龄人口减少已经超过三
千多万，国内劳动力成本的不断上升，与印尼、越南、
印度等低廉的劳动力成本形成明显反差。此外，2023 年
全球经济增速将出现回落，出口增速将比经济增速的回
落更迅猛。IMF 预测 2023 年的全球 GDP 将回落至 2.9%,
外贸出口的增速将更低。
经济论坛 Economics Forum
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As can be seen from the graph above, China's macro leverage
ratio was already close to that of developed countries and
much higher than that of emerging economies, which means
that while it is getting older before it gets rich, it also has the
problem of "debt before it gets richer". Moreover, the share
of private investment in fixed assets is decreasing due to a
decline in return on investment. Returns on infrastructure
investment have been declining and are now lower than the
cost of special debt financing. Since 2020, the use of special
debt funds for projects such as land storage and squatter
reform has been more restricted and mainly used for
infrastructure projects through urban investment platforms.
The median rate of return on invested capital on urban
investment platforms has dropped from 3.1% in 2011 to 1.3%
in 2020, significantly lower than the average issuance rate of
special bonds, explaining the decline in the use of special bond
funds.
The growth rate of infrastructure investment this year
increased by 8.7% year-on-year from January to October,
while the growth rate of infrastructure investment from 2018-
2021 has fallen off a cliff, pointing to infrastructure
investments as the main beneficiary of counter-cyclical
policies. The sharp fall in real estate investment growth is due
to falling demand, such as the 25.5% fall in residential sales
from January to October this year.
The accelerated aging of the population will not only slow
down the urbanization process, but also lead to a decline in
the proportion of young people. From two aspects above, it
will end the upward cycle of real estate that had lasted for
more than 20 years.
The negative impact of accelerated aging on exports is mainly
reflected in rising labour costs. In recent years, China has
seen a few industries relocate out of the country due to a
decline in the working age population, which has exceeded 30
million people, and the rising cost of domestic labour.
Chinese labour is now considered expensive compared to
those in Indonesia, Vietnam and India. In addition, the global
economic growth rate will drop in 2023, with export growth
falling sharply. The IMF forecasts that global GDP will fall back
to 2.9% in 2023 and that foreign trade exports will grow at an
even lower rate.
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE March 2023
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