Page 33 - CCFA Journal - Tenth Issue
P. 33
加中金融 经济论坛 Economics Forum
加中金融
相比之下，2020 年印度的老龄化率只有 6.57%，还没有步 In contrast, India's aging rate in 2020 is only 6.57%, not in
入老龄化社会，而且，2023 年印度的总人口将超过中国， aging society. Moreover, India's total population will surpass
成为全球人口第一大国。为何印度没有步入老龄化，且 China in 2023. Why is India with an average working age
劳动年龄人口的平均年龄大约比中国年轻 10 岁呢？主要 population about 10 years younger than China, and not an
与人均预期寿命有关。例如，在 1960 年的时候，中国人 aging society? This is mainly related to average life expectancy.
均预期寿命要比印度高两岁，如今则相差 7 岁。而且，印 For example, life expectancy in China was two years higher
度没有实施过计划生育，属于高生育率的国家。 than in India in 1960; today the difference is seven years.
Moreover, India has not implemented family planning policies
图 1 中国与印度的人均预期寿命走势图 and has a high fertility rate.
来源：世界银行，中泰证券研究所
India, like most countries in the world, has a relatively natural
population growth, and the aging process is very slow under
可见，印度和全球大部分国家一样，人口的增长比较自 a high birth rate. China intervened in the population growth
然，而且高出生率下老龄化进程非常缓慢。我国则不一 of its country and had established a comprehensive medical
样，从上世纪 50 年代提出鼓励生育政策到 70 年代实施计 service system much earlier. With average life expectancy
划生育政策，干预了出生率。加上我国较早就建立起完 close to that of Western developed countries, it is not
备的医疗服务体系，人口的平均预期寿命接近于西方发 surprising that China has prematurely entered the stage of
达国家，这才使得我国过早地步入人口老龄化加速阶段。 accelerated population aging.
老龄化加速会产生哪些问题? What are the problems of accelerated aging?
在讨论我国经济增长的长期问题时，很多人经常听到的 We compared the per capita GDP of South Korea, China and
一个词叫“未富先老”，为此，我们不妨把韩国、中国 India. Sixty years ago, the GDP per capita levels of these three
与印度这三国国家的人均 GDP 做一比较，60 年前，这三 countries were not very different. In 1961, South Korea, China,
个国家的人均 GDP 水平差距并不大，如 1961 年韩国为 93 and India’s GDP per capita was US$93, US$76, and US$85,
美元，中国为 76 美元，印度为 85 美元。但韩国是从 1975 respectively. However, South Korea began to rise
年左右作为亚洲四小龙之一，经济开始崛起，到 1995 年 economically as one of the four Asian tigers around 1975. By
1995, South Korea’s GDP per capita exceeded US$12,000,
人均 GDP 超过 12000 美元，成为高收入国家，可谓“未 becoming a high-income country which allowed them to be
老先富”。
described as "getting rich before getting old".
几乎所有的高收入国家都是未老先富，原因很简单，在 Most high-income countries get rich before they get old. The
未步入老龄化之前， 劳动力充裕，成本相对低，具有先 reason is simple. A young and abundant labor force keeps the
发优势。但中国由于诸多原因，在 1950-1990 年这 40 年中， cost relatively low, which gives them a first-mover advantage.
GDP 在全球的份额并没有上升。 However, due to a combination of domestic and external
factors, China's GDP share in the world did not increase during
the 40 years from 1950 to 1990.
图 2 以美元计价的中、韩、印人均 GDP 走势比较
来源：世界银行，中泰证券研究所
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE March 2023
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