Page 34 - CCFA Journal - Tenth Issue
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经济论坛 Economics Forum 加中金融
不过，1990 年以后中国开始腾飞，如 1990 年我国人均 China's economy began to take off after 1990. China's GDP per
GDP 只有 317 美元，比印度低 50 美元。但如今人均 GDP capita in 1990 was only US$317, US$50 lower than India.
水平已经是印度的 5.5 倍。由此可见，只要时间足够长， Today, China’s GDP per capita is 5.5 times that of India.
赶超的机会总是存在的。印度经济发展迟缓的原因是国 India's sluggish economic development is due to excessive
内经济波动过大，经常出现负增长，包括本币的大幅贬 domestic economic volatility and frequent negative growth,
值等。 including a significant devaluation of the local currency.
Although China's economic growth rate significantly exceeds
尽管我国经济增速显著超过全球平均水平，但自 2011 年 the global average, its economy continued to slow down, on
以后，经济持续减速，这与我国劳动年龄人口开始减少 pace with a decline in its working-age population. By analyzing
的时间非常吻合，说明人口老龄化会影响经济增速。例 the change in GDP growth rates in Germany, France, the
如，通过研究德国、法国、英国、俄罗斯、美国等国家 United Kingdom, Russia, the United States and other Western
深度老龄化迈向超老龄化进程中的 GDP 增速变化，发现 countries , it is found that the GDP growth rate of developed
已经成为发达国家的经济体，在步入深度老龄化之后， countries has declined significantly after entering deep aging,
GDP 增速都出现了显著下降，而且平均增速都不超过 3%。 with the average growth rate capped at 3% per annum.
例如，德国在 1972-2008 年这 36 年中，GDP 增速最高为 For example, from 1972 to 2008, Germany’s GDP growth rate
5.3%，其中有 6年出现负增长，年平均增速只有 2.2%；而 was the highest at 5.3%, this was followed by 6 years of
在步入深度老龄化之前的60年代，GDP增速多次出现 7% negative growth at an average annual growth rate of only
或 8%以上的增长。 2.2%. In the 1960s, before moving into deep aging, GDP
growth rates of 7% or 8% or more were achieved.
图 3 德国 GDP 增速走势图
来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所
Germany is the strongest manufacturing power in Europe and
has the best economic development history. In contrast,
德国属于欧洲最强的制造业大国，经济发展状况也是最 countries such as the UK, France, Portugal and Canada, which
好的，相比之下，英国、法国、葡萄牙、加拿大等已经 have already entered or are about to enter super-aging, are
步入或即将步入超老龄化国家，在此过程中的经济增速 experiencing lower economic growth than Germany. Japan's
比德国更低；日本经济增速则长期徘徊在零附近，其中 economic growth rate has been hovering around zero for a
从深度老龄化到超老龄化期间的平均增速只有 1.26%。 long time.
Will China's economic growth rate also decline as it moves
那么，我国在步入深度老龄化之后，经济增速是否也会
下台阶呢？我们不妨从最基本的分析方法入手，即分析 into deep aging? Let us start with the most basic analysis
method, that is the troika driving GDP under the expenditure
支出法下的拉动 GDP“三驾马车”——投资、消费和出 approach, the future trends of investment, consumption and
口的未来走势。 exports.
首先，必须明确的是中国经济增长中，资本形成（即投 First, it must be clear that foreign direct investment makes a
资）对 GDP 的贡献巨大，2008 年至 2021 年，平均贡献率 significant contribution to GDP in China's economic growth.
在43%，两倍于全球各国的平均水平。说明投资拉动型模 Between 2008 and 2021, the average contribution was at 43%,
式是中国经济的一大特色。但是，这一模式到了后期， twice the global average for all countries. It shows that the
就会出现投资回报率的下降和债务率的上升。据国家金 investment-driven pattern is a major feature of China's
融与发展实验室发布的研究报告显示，2022 年三季度中 economy. However, at a later stage, there was a decline in the
国宏观杠杆率 273.9%。 return on investment and a rise in the debt ratio. According to
a research report released by the National Finance and
Development Laboratory, China's macro leverage ratio was
273.9% in the third quarter of 2022.
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE March 2023
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