Page 48 - CCFA Journal - Third Issue

加中金融
风控大讲堂 Risk Management Forum 加中金融

由于中国金融和经济体系持续渐进改革和市场经济在计划经 (2) China's systemic risk structural problems are prominent.
济体系基础上不断发展壮大，经济改革发展的结构性问题也
As China's financial and economic system continues to reform
反映在系统性风险之中。例如大型金融机构风险与中小金融
gradually and the market economy continues to grow and develop
机构风险、银行风险与资本市场等非银行风险、政府承担的 on the basis of the planned economic system, the structural
风险与市场承担的风险、实体经济风险与金融体系风险、市 problems of economic reform and development are also reflected
场机制风险（过度投机）与行政机制风险（破坏市场机制）、 in the systemic risk. These structural problems bring multi-sources,
基础产品风险与衍生产品风险（资产交易、证券化、嵌套）、 complicated and volatile transmission mechanism to China’s
投机性风险（短期）与投资性风险（中长期）、金融性风险 systemic risk. The risk management needs effective cooperation of
与操作性风险（治理、法律、科技应用等）、偿付能力风险 market economy and non-market economies.
与流动性风险、日常管理性风险与战略性及周期性风险，等
5. How to manage China's systemic risk from a macro perspective?
等。这些结构性问题使得中国系统风险多源，传导机制复杂
多变，管理起来需要市场经济和非市场经济的手段的有效配 In the past few decades, China has managed systemic risk by
合。 initial capital or guarantors from the government and by
accumulated capital through rapid economic growth. Due to the

virtuous circle of these two means, China's economic collapse and
五、如何从宏观上管理中国系统性风险？ crisis had not occurred, even with increasing systemic risk. Many
problems have been resolved during the economic development.

过去几十年我们对系统性风险的管理一是通过政府提供初始 How to macro-manage systemic risk in the future?
的资本或担保来承担，二是靠快速地发展提供资本积累。这 First of all, it is still fundamentally up to economic development.
两者的良性循环，才使得中国的经济发展面对系统性风险增
Without economic growth, systemic risk is ultimately very difficult
加的同时而没有发生崩溃和危机，很多问题都是在发展过程 to cover. Therefore, China's economic development policies are
中解决的。未来如何宏观管理系统性风险呢？ the cornerstone of systemic risk management in the financial
system.
首先，从根本上来说仍然要靠发展，如果没有发展，系统性
风险最终是很难兜底的。因此，中国各项经济发展政策是金 Second, it requires a reasonable corporation between the market
融系统性风险管理的基石。 and the government functions. Markets are to disperse risks, and
governments are to provide the final coverage (to a limited
第二，需要市场和政府作用机制合理配合。市场来分散，政
degree). Markets are focused on managing systemic risks on a day
府来（有限度地）兜底；市场注重对日常系统性风险的管理， to day basis; governments have to manage the bottom line.
政府也要管住最后底线；市场提供激励，政府提供信心。
Third, strengthen identification and attention of important
第三，加强对重要系统性风险源的识别和关注，不仅包括诸 systemic risk sources, including not only the four old risk points,
如房地产金融、地方政府融资、国企融资（尤其是僵尸企 that is, the real estate financing, local government financing, state-
业）、资管业务等老的四大风险点，也包括中小银行（机 owned enterprise financing (especially zombie enterprises), and
构）、普惠金融、金融科技、外部冲击等新的四大风险点。 capital management business, but also the new four risk points:
small and medium-sized banks (institutions), inclusive finance,
第四，加强对具有普遍性的高风险商业模式和运行机制的关 fintech, and external shocks.
注，如投资领域“空手道”、“旁氏骗术”等各种投机风险
和操作风险较高的商业模式。 Fourth, pay more attention to the high-risk business models and
operating mechanisms, such as various business models with high
最后，我们要加强系统性风险管理思维。有效利用多年来现 speculative risks and operational (especially fraud) risk such as
代风险管理的发展积累，夯实监管（包括宏观和微观审慎监 "Pyramid Scheme" and "Ponzi Scheme" in the investment field.
管）基础和效果，推动机构管理和政府监管的和谐统一，提
升市场和政府作用的机制的和谐统一，从而处理好风险管理 Finally, China should strengthen the systemic risk management
thinking, including effective use of accumulated knowledge and
和发展的关系，防范“一放就乱，一管就死”。
experience of modern risk management over the years to
enhancing supervision (including macro and micro prudential
supervision), promoting the coherence of risk management
between institutions and government supervision, improving the
mechanism of markets and government roles, and eventually
balancing relationship between risk management and
development.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE MARCH 2021
Page 48