Page 7 - CCFA Journal - Third Issue

CCFF2020/加拿大中国金融论坛 2020
回顾过去 25 年的中国经济状况，国有部门仍占 GDP 的
45％，政府部门，金融部门和非金融部门分别下降了 18％，
7％和 7％。除了国有部门一直对经济造成一定的拖累，当
前的政策更会影响私营部门内部的决策，并导致生产率增
长下降。私营部门生产力的下降又直接拖累了经济增长速
度。Covid-19 影响了家庭，企业和政府的债务水平，从而
影响了企业和家庭的期望。还有一些更重要的更深层次的
政策问题将影响中国经济的发展。
问题 2：Bruce：我想请 Yi Huang 教授谈谈中国金融市场
和一些结构性要素。看看您是否可以帮助我们了解一些新
的政策和计划。比如中国金融市场向西方的开放，上海证
券交易所明星计划，以及‘双循环’政策。
Yi Huang：我也要首先感谢 CCFA 的邀请加入论坛。我将
从三个方面分享我对中国金融市场的看法：首先，如果您
看一下在中国大陆，香港和美国上市的中国公司，从投资
者的角度来看，哪个市场表现最佳（自2008年以来）？答
案是香港，其次是纽约，上海和深圳。最高的回报来自中
国以外的市场。其次是 “CDR”，它类似于“ ADR”
（美国存托凭证）允许外国投资者在美国市场投资中国公
司。 “CDR”允许外国投资者在中国投资中国公司。第
三，哪个部门在中国尤其是金融市场上表现最好？答案是
“ ABCD”，其中“ A”代表“人工智能”； “ B”代表
“区块链”； “ C”代表“云计算”； “ D”代表“大数
据”，再加上“生物技术”。这些是政府鼓励资本投资的
行业。
让我们谈谈 Covid-19 背景下的“明星计划”和“双循环
“政策以及国际贸易中的挑战。中国政府鼓励优秀的中国
公司通过所谓的“ CDR”计划在上海或深圳上市。这将
吸引更多的投资者在上海投资。通过“ CDR”和“明星
计划”，政府允许公司通过调整公司章程（例如投票权）
回到中国。许多中国公司希望在纽约或中国境外上市的原
因是允许它们具有不同的投票权，而现在中国也允许这样
做。这项政策鼓励特别是上述五个行业的公司回国，即使
它们已在美国，加拿大或中国以外的其他地区上市。以前
的政策对出口部门更有利，政府鼓励发展国际贸易。在
“双循环”政策下，中国将同样侧重于国内市场的发展，
这对那些对国内公司有更多了解的本地投资者是首选。
这些政策的意义是投资决策中最重要的因素风险调整后的
收益。Loren 从增长的角度进行了讨论，并与其他国家进
行了比较。我认为，如果中国能够避免贸易保护主义等政
策扭曲，它将继续增长。 “明星计划”和“ CDR”政策
似乎表明，中国将继续开放其金融市场，以吸引更多的国
内外公司来华投资。
问题 3：Bruce: 非常感谢。太棒了。我想让 Jim Allworth
加入讨论。Jim 是我们小组唯一一位真正的投资者，他是
加拿大皇家银行的投资组合策略师。鉴于 Yi Huang 教授
所说的，在开始讨论其他一些投资主题之前，我想请吉姆
谈谈对中国股票尤其是 A 股市场的观点。
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE
加中金融
Looking at the Chinese economy over the last 25 years, the state
sector remains at 45% of GDP, breaking down 18%, 7% and 7%
for government, financial and non-financial sectors,
respectively. While the state sector has always been a bit of a
drag on the economy, the current policies affect the decisions
being made within the private sector and resulted in a decline in
productivity growth. There are some deeper policy issues that
are much more important that will influence the Chinese
economy moving forward.
Question 2: Bruce: I am going to bring Professor Huang
into the conversation now and talk a little bit about Chinese
financial markets and some of the structural components.
I wanted to see if you could help to educate us on some of
the new policies and programs. First, the opening of the
Chinese financial markets to the west, and then on the
Shanghai Stock Exchanges Star Program, and the Dual
Circulation Policy?
Yi: Thank CCFA for the invitation to join the forum. My view
about the Chinese financial markets are in three perspectives:
first, as Chinese companies are listed in China, Hong Kong, and
the US, which market performed the best since 2008? The
answer is Hong Kong, followed by New York, Shanghai and
Shenzhen. The highest return is coming from markets outside
China. Secondly, let’s look at “CDR”, which is similar to “ADR”
- American Depository Receipts that allows foreign investors to
invest in Chinese companies in the US markets. Thirdly, which
sector has the best performance in China especially in the
financial markets? The answer is “ABCD”, where “A” for
“Artificial Intelligence”; “B” for “Block Chain”; “C” for
“Cloud Computing”; “D” for “Big Data”, plus “Bio-tech”.
These are the high performing sectors in which the Government
promotes capital investment.
Consider the Star Program and the Dual Circulation Policy in
the context of Covid-19 and the challenges in international
trades. Chinese government encourages good Chinese
companies to list in Shanghai or Shenzhen via so-called “CDR”
program. With the “CDR” and the “Star Program”, the
government allows companies to go back to China with
adjusted corporate governance (e.g., voting right). The reason
why many Chinese companies want to be listed in New York or
outside of China, is because they are allowed with different
voting rights, which is now permitted in China. The policy
encourages companies, especially for the above mentioned five
sectors, to be back even you have been already listed abroad.
Previous policies were more supportive for the export sector
and government encouraged development international trade.
Under the “Dual Circulation” China will be equally focused on
development of domestic market, which is preferred by local
investors who are more knowledgeable in domestic firms.
The policy implication is that the most important factor in
investment decision is the risk adjusted returns. Loren discussed
from a growth perspective, benchmarked with other countries.
I think China will continue to grow if it can avoid policy
distortions like protectionism. “Star” programs and “CDR”
policy seem to suggest that China will continue to open its
financial market to attract more companies both domestic and
foreign to invest in China.
Question 3: Bruce: Thank you very much. That was
fantastic. I'd like to bring Jim Allworth into the discussion
as well. Jim is the is the one true investor on our panel, and
he's a portfolio strategist in RBC. Given what Professor
Huang was just speaking about, I want to start the question
with getting Jim’s views on the Chinese equity markets,
and especially your views on the A-share market before we
talk about some of the other investment themes.
MARCH 2021 Page 7