Page 10 - CCFA Journal - Third Issue

加中金融
CCFF2020/加拿大中国金融论坛 2020
上海之星计划由多个组成部分组成，值得花些时间来勾勒
出来。中国金融市场越来越向外国机构开放，外国机构以
前需要以“合格机构投资者（QFII）”的身份在中国投资。
当前的政策减少了配额授予过程中的壁垒，以吸引更多的
外资流入中国。从资本流出的角度来看，鉴于 Brandt 教授
指出的中国高储蓄率，中国投资者正在积极寻求将其资金
用于股票，房地产，现代艺术等领域，但中国缺乏可投资
产品。 明星计划允许中国投资者在全球范围内分配和平衡
资产，同时降低风险。雨天时，您可以在中国境外购买雨
伞（股票），您可以在中国购买冰淇淋（股票）。
我认为金融市场改革有两个方面。一方面，它鼓励资本流
入中国，允许外国投资者投资中国的优秀公司，并引入行
业最佳实践。另一方面，它允许中国资本进行国际投资以
实现在全球范围内分配和平衡投资组合。
Loren: 我只想继续 Yi Huang 教授的观点，因为我认为他提
出了一个关键问题，即所谓的实体经济改革。这项改革对
金融部门也同样重要，这是过去 25 年中讨论的主题。
我们认为，在1990年代后期中国金融业表现不佳破坏了经
济。当不良贷款占贷款组合的 50％时，银行会对其进行资
本重组，并将坏账从资产负债表中剥离。我们担心银行的
这种处理方式可能对未来的增长产生不利影响。在资本重
组后，我们理所当然可以看到中国有10年的稳步增长。我
认为储蓄率将随着增长放缓而下降，这在全球范围内可能
类似。
Yi Huang 教授还指出，个人和家庭在中国境外寻求资产多
元化的需求确实很大。值得注意的是，中国的资本管制使
个人在全球范围内配置资产变得极为困难。通过资本管制，
人们会按照政策制定者认为合适的方式流动和引导。金融
自由化的潜力很大，但迄今为止进行的讨论相对较少。正
如 Yi Huang 教授指出的那样，中国能否利用这一巨大潜力
将取决于对实体经济和金融部门的改革。
问题 6：Bruce: 谢谢。JIM 我想在问答环节前让你聊聊两
个与全球投资有关的问题。 与新兴市场有关的一个概念
是“亚洲主导”的新兴市场正在复苏。 因此，许多其他
亚洲经济体的复苏还没有像中国那样快，所以是“亚洲主
导”的新兴市场复苏，还是“中国主导”的新兴市场复苏？
Jim：嗯，虽然您可以说亚洲的复苏是由中国带动的，但
亚洲区域间的贸易也有很多。在过去几个月中，我们看到
日本和韩国的出口激增。增长最快的是中国，它是亚洲其
他地区和全球经济的良好领先指标。我认为很难区分中国
和其他亚洲几个国家。鉴于贸易状况，它们全都取决于发
达经济体的复兴。
让我们以“飞机起飞”作为类比。在起飞到平稳的时间段，
因为飞机一直有动力，突然失去动力的时候会有不适的感
觉。在飞机再次飞高之前的最后三，四分钟也会感到有点
不适。经济衰退期间的许多复苏经历了“平稳期”，这让
人感到不舒服。
业界很快会开始讨论是否有双底衰退出现，。虽然我认为
不会有，但也不好说。我认为亚洲经济体将引领2021年的
复苏。对于加拿大而言，尤其是从投资和GDP角度而言，
很大程度上取决于美国的复苏，希望美国不会出现衰退。
其他发达市场也依赖于美国的复苏，并在较小程度上依赖
新兴经济体。
我们认为，美国的复苏和向常态的过渡在2021年将是坎坷
的。它可能将在2022年最终达到长期的潜在增长率，比如
说介于 6.5％和 7％之间。美国国会预算办公室对美国GDP
的预测值得密切关注。该办公室建议，未来20年美国经济
的长期潜在年增长率约为 4％，低于金融危机之前的预测。
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE
Page 10
加中金融
I think the financial market reform has two sides. On the one hand,
it encourages capital inflow to China, allowing foreign investors to
invest in good Chinese firms, introduce industry best practice. On
the other hand, it allows Chinese capitals invest internationally to
allocate and balance portfolios globally.
Loren: I just want to pick up on Yi’s point because I think he raises
a critical issue in the reform to what I might call the real economy.
This reform to the financial sector is just equally important, and
these are the subjects of discussion for past 25 years.
We thought that poorly performed financial sector in China might
destroy the economy in the late 1990s. When banks, with non-
performing loans accounted for approximately 50% of their
lending portfolios, were recapitalized and bad debts removed from
their balance sheets. There were concerns about the way the banks
behaved and how that might adversely affect the growth moving
forward. We certainly observed 10 solid years of growth in China
post recapitalization. I think saving rates will drop as growth slows
down going forward, which is probably similar around the globe.
Yi also pointed out that there is a real demand on the part of
individuals and households looking for diversifying their assets
outside China. We need to keep in mind that China's capital control
has made it extremely difficult for individuals to mobilized and
directed as the policymakers see fit. There is an enormous room for
financial liberalization to occur, yet discussions held to date are
relatively marginal. China's ability to leverage this enormous
potential will depend on reforms to the real economy and the
financial sector as Yi just pointed out.
Question 6: Bruce: Thank you. So, Jim I wanted to bring you
back in before Q&A. We had two questions related to global
investing. One related to emerging markets, the concept of an
“Asian-led” emerging market recovering. So, question is
many other Asian economies haven't been recovering as
quickly as China, is there such a thing as an “Asian-led”
emerging market recovery or is it more of a “China-led”
emerging market recovery?
Jim: Well, while you could argue that Asian recovery is led by
China, there is a lot of inter-regional trade. We saw surges in the
past few months in Japanese and Korean exports. The most of that
surges were with China, which serves as a good leading indicator
for the rest of Asia and the global economy. I would argue that it is
very hard to distinguish between them. They all, given the trade
profiles, depend on the developed economies coming back to life.
Let’s use ‘take-off’ as the analogy. The period from taking off to
leveling off can result in quite an uncomfortable feeling because
you have been powering up and suddenly you are powering down
a bit and feels a bit queasy in the last three or four minutes before
plane starts flying higher again. A lot of recoveries out of
recessions go through ‘levelling-off’ period and it can feel
uncomfortable.
We will soon start to debate if there is a double-dip recession
coming. While I do not think there will be one, it will not stop the
conversation. I think that Asian economies will be in lead of the
recovery in 2021. For us in Canada, especially from both
investment and GDP perspectives, largely depends on recovery in
the US - no US recession, hopefully. Other developed markets also
depend on the recovery of US and, to a less extend, emerging
economies.
We think the US recovery and transition to normalcy will be bumpy
in 2021. It will eventually get back to a long-term potential growth
rate in 2022 and beyond, say, between 6.5% and 7%. The US
Congressional Budget Office, whose US GDP forecast is worth
paying a close attention, suggested that the long-term potential
annual growth rate for the US economy for the next 20 years is
about 4%, which is lower than that forecasted prior to financial
crisis.
MARCH 2021