Page 8 - CCFA Journal - Third Issue

加中金融
CCFF2020/加拿大中国金融论坛 2020
Jim: 首先，我感谢 CCFA 的邀请，很高兴与大家见面。显
然，资本应该流向风险调整后收益最佳的地方。但是，为
什么资本并没有向世界上增长最快的经济体流入呢？我认
为答案是 Brandt 教授提到的令人失望的增长数字，即增长
由于政策变化而偏离，并且存在很大的政策不确定性。
回顾金融危机时代，当时许多经济体，公司和收益大幅下
降。但是中国经济并没有受到金融危机带来的大部分负面
影响。金融危机过后，它迅速恢复了快速增长。所以在金
融危机后在哪投资比较好？中国！但是，你很难找到一个
国家的股市在金融危机后的表现要比中国差 - 资本并没有
涌向中国。我想这回答这个问题需要做详尽的分析，但我
认为政策不确定性是一个隐患。
值得称赞的是，现在中国政府制定了政策框架用以加强投
资者的信心并深化金融市场的开放。虽然我们还是担心中
国生产率和GDP的增长可持续性，但资本将流向中国。为
什么？因为中国有保持市场开放的积极意愿，这与其他世
界经济体大不相同。将中国债务和证券纳入部分指数也有
助于吸引外国投资。尽管未来几年预计将继续有大量资本
流入中国，但新资本的到来将不太可能解决 Loren 提到的
问题。我的忧虑不是当前，而是未来的投资回报。
在评估加拿大，美国或欧洲市场等成熟市场时，可以说企
业的价值是伴随着收入增长和经济增长的步伐而增长。通
常，GDP 的增长与收入和商业的增长保持同步。如果我们
的股票升值速度快于GDP增长所能支持的收益，那么这种
升值将不太可能持续，并且有潜在的错位。我认为这不是
今天的问题，而是未来的趋势。我也想知道政府的政策
（比如贸易保护政策）在此过程中扮演了什么样的角色。
在我看来，不仅中国，其他经济体的政策也需要应对贸易
保护主义，这被称为“循环”，“复原力”之类的词。说
白了就是保护主义。近 500 年来（不仅是第二次世界大战
以来），我们一直致力将国际贸易向更加自由化的关系转
变。我们现在遇到令人担忧的保护主义的趋势，这些趋势
可能破坏增长潜力。我认为我们进入了贸易保护主义的时
期。我担心的是中国遇到的政策问题在某种程度上也适用
于全球经济的其他国家。这就是我的看法，期待其他专家
的观点。
问题 4：Bruce: 谢谢 Jim。让我们回到 Brandt 教授，谈谈
可能扭曲经济和市场的一些观点比如地方政府的金融工具
是否影响中国经济，以及政府引导的投资基金的影响等。
这些做法是否会对市场造成潜在的在扭曲。
Loren: 让我们回顾一下储蓄率约占 GDP 的 45％的中国金
融部门的重要性，每年都有大量储蓄需要由金融市场进行
调节，这在资产配置，流动资金供应和风险管理中起着重
要作用。
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE
Page 8
加中金融
Jim: Sure. I would like to make a few observations. First, I am
grateful for the CCFA invitation and it’s a great pleasure meeting
everyone. Apparently, capital is supposed to flow towards where the
best risk adjusted return is generated. But why it has not occurred
aggressively towards what has been for a long time the fastest
growing economy in the world? I think the answer is in the desperate
growth numbers that Professor Brandt mentioned, that is, growth
was deviated due to policy shifts and there has been a significant
policy uncertainty.
Looking back to the financial crisis days when many economies,
corporations and earnings were largely dislocated. Chinese
economy stood aside and essentially missed most of the negative
impact of the financial crisis. It resumed rapid growth quickly post
the financial crisis. So where would you like to invest? China would
be the place. However, it’s hard to think of an equity market that
performed more poorly post the financial crisis than China - It just
did not go anywhere. As I am trying to reconcile this, I think policy
uncertainty has to be a big issue.
To China's credit, the government moved towards a policy
framework that instills high investors’ confidence and deepens the
opening of its financial market. While we are worrying about the
growth sustainability in Chinese productivity and GDP, capitals
continue to flow to China. Why? Because China has a positive intent
to keep its market open, which differs significantly from other world
economies. Inclusion of Chinese debt and equity securities in the
recognized indexes also help attract capital investment. While
Capital inflow to China is expected to continue for the next several
years, the arrival of new capital will be unlikely to resolve the issues
Loren mentioned. My concern is not for the present but rather for
the future of return on investment.
When assessing mature markets like Canada, the US, or European
markets, one of the things you can say is that the value of businesses
rises at the pace of earnings increase and economy growth. Normally
GDP growth keeps pace with that of earnings and business. If we
have stocks appreciating faster than earnings that can be supported
by GDP growth, such appreciation will unlikely be sustainable and
will have potential for dislocation. I do not think it's a concern for
today but rather for trajectory for future growth. I would be
interested to know if policies is set on an erect irretrievable course.
It seems to me that not only China's, but policies of other economies,
need to cope with the protectionism, which is called interesting
things like “circulation”, “resilience”, and others. It is the
protectionism after all. For probably 500 years, not just since World
War II, we have been transforming international trade worrying
demographic trends that can undermine the potential for growth. I
think we have entered a period where protectionism has further live
span. I am concerned that the policy issues identified for China are
to some extend applicable to other parts of the global economy as
well. While this is how I feel, I would be interested in knowing the
views of my colleagues based on their detailed analysis.
Question 4: Bruce: Thank you Jim. I do want to come back to
Professor Brandt to speak about things that have the potential
to distort economies and markets. Loren, I want to talk a little
bit about the legacy of the local government financial vehicles,
and whether they continue to affect the Chinese economy, the
implications of the expanding role of the government guided
investment funds. The two things, I think, potentially have
market distortion embedded within them.
Loren: Let’s recap the importance of the financial sector in China
where savings rates are about 45% of GDP and every year there's an
enormous amount savings added to this pool that needs to be
intermediated by financial markets, which plays an important role in
asset allocation, liquidity provision, and risk management.
MARCH 2021