Page 3 - CCFA Journal - 8th Issue

加中金融

编辑寄语 Editor’s Message

夏安！夏天既是度假的季节，也是一个很好的反思回顾的时段！2022 年，这样一个很“2”的年份，注定将以众多重大历史事件
注入史册，也将是一个周期的转折点！今年全球目睹了许多前所未有的历史性事件。全球依然还在与新冠的不同变异毒株战
斗；全球正经历由于供给端冲击和需求暖回暖所带来的历史性高通胀；年初的出人意料的俄乌战争除了阻隔了能源和农业商
品的供给端，也给欧元的疲软和走弱投下更大压力；量化宽松时代的收尾很不幸是以日本前首相安倍晋三的意外遇刺而为标
志，而其“安倍经济学”也成为量化宽松的时代历史注脚；全球央行进入热烈的加息比赛，其热度犹如加拿大今年罕见的炎夏。
在如此这样一个动荡而又分化的年份，许多隐藏在经济和金融系统下的风险逐渐浮出水面！在全球加息周期，什么是最敏感
最可能出系统风险的行业？本期，我们一起探讨房地产行业的潜在风险，及其向银行板块的传导和挑战。

在中国今年夏天，多地上演的“断供潮”成为悬在房地产行业上方的一把利剑！“不交房，不还贷”！这会是中国版的“次贷危机”
吗？更多的中国房地产公司会踏上债券违约的征程吗？我们本期有幸有三位专家作者从不同视角分析了这些问题。贾康先生
分析了中国房地产行业的内在性原生问题，并且提出了让行业长期回归健康的四点有力建议。伍戈先生指出了影响个人房贷
可能违约的宏观变量，并且认为由于新冠疫情引起的居民资产负债表的长期恶化趋势将很难得到修复。陆挺先生从房地产开
发商的角度关注到“预售比重”去年以来持续攀升，强调了由于中国政府对房地产行业的“三条红线”强制政策，加剧了行业对
房子预售的依赖。陆先生和他的团队确信中国版的“沃尔克时刻”还未结束，房地产行业的复苏还远未到来！

房地产行业的风险如何传导到银行板块？银行做好了在这样的压力测试下信用和流动性风险的应对吗？Mr. Jeff Huang 回顾了
自 1988 年以来的银行业的巴塞尔协议改革。Huang 先生以加拿大银行为鉴，总结了银行在巴塞尔 IV 做了调整之后的风控系
统提升了对房地产抵押资产的风险敏感度，并且对于更加风险资产的预算资本成本将显著增加。对于银行资产负债表受房地
产资产的流动性影响，Mr.Liu Yi 从风险控制和巴赛尔协议监管视角，为银行业提供了两个非常实际并且关键的流动性指标。

8 月 26 日，中国证监会和美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）签署审计合作协议。笼罩在“中概股退市风险”的阴霾是
否就此散开，抑或可能脱钩？Mr. Daye Deng 对在美上市“中概股”的 VIE 结构做了全面清晰阐述，以期有助于投资者了解其
中的争议。也许今年这么“2”的年份是最差的，也许更美好的事情即将降临！但正如中国话所说，危机就是危中有机！

本期阅读愉快！
Greetings! Summer is the time of vacation! Summer can also be a good time for reflection! 2022 is destined to be recorded in history as a
significant eventful and transition year! The year has witnessed many unprecedented historical events so far! Global battles of on-going
various variants of covid-19 still persist. Historical high inflation due to supply shocks and demand recovery has shown around the globe.
The unexpected Russia-Ukraine war led to even more pressure on weakening Euro besides, more disruptions on energy and agriculture
commodities’ supply. The end of era of Quantitative Easing (QE) was sadly marked by the surprising assassination of former Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe along with the exit of economics as the era’s historical footnote. The global central banks have taken hawkish measures
in their unprecedented rate hiking policies, which may seem similar to the unusual high-temperature summer in Canada. In the background
of such a turbulent and bifurcated year, many underneath risks in the economic and financial system start to surface. What is the most
sensitive sector that exposes to systematic risks in the cycle of global rate hiking? In this issue, we focus on the risks of one particular sector,
real estate industry, and its spill-over risks and challenges to banking sector.

In China, the threat of stop-making mortgage payments became a sharp sword hung over Chinese property industry this summer. “No
delivery of homes, no mortgage repayment”. Is this the Chinese subprime crisis? Will more real estate companies default on their bonds? We
are honored to have three experts who offered their different perspectives in this issue. Mr. Kang Jia illustrated the origin of the problems
hidden in the Chinese real estate industry and summarized the four-fold suggestions in bringing the industry back to a healthy state in the
long term. Mr. Ge Wu provided the analysis of impact of macro variables on the default probability of personal mortgages. He concluded
that the long-term and deep deterioration of residents’ balance sheet is hard to repair due to the pandemic. From Chinese developers’
perspective and by study of the headline presale ratio, Mr. Ting Lu, stressed the heavy reliance on home sales for financing due to the “three-
red lines” on real estate industry imposed by the government. Mr. Lu and his team highlighted that Chinese-style Volker moment is not over
yet and a real recovery of the property sector still appears to be far-fetched.
How will the mortgage payment risks transferred to bank sector and will banks be ready for credit and liquidity risks under such stress tests?
Mr. Jeff Huang reviewed the history of Basel reforms on banking around the globe since 1988. Mr. Huang illustrated from Canadian banks’
perspectives and concluded that the Basel IV with some deviations has greatly enhanced the risk sensitivity of real estate secured products,
and the projected capital cost of riskier mortgages could increase significantly. With regard to the liquidity impact on the real estate assets in
the banking balance sheet, Mr. Yi Liu offered a summary of two key practical liquidity measures on banks from the perspective of risk
management and Basel regulatory requirement.
The US’ Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) signed a Statement of Protocol with Chinese government, most detailed
and prescriptive agreement ever reached, and will reshape the future fate of Chinese listed companies in US. Mr. Daye Deng provided a very
comprehensive reading on VIE structure, which serves as a compromise between the issuer, the government, and investors, to help investors
better understand the controversy.
It may be the worst year, and there may be better things yet to come. Nonetheless, there are always opportunities coming out of crises, as its
Chinese saying.

Yanan Wu

吴雅楠

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE August 2022 Page 3 第3页