Page 8 - CCFA Journal - 8th Issue

经济热点 Economy hotspots
纵观各种经济动能，居民端的修复最为迟缓。近期商
品房“停贷”事件固然暴露出房地产市场的诸多窘境，
但本质上也折射出微观家庭面临的罕见压力。本轮疫
情峰值已过，居民端的收入和消费能否恢复如初？又
将对后续房地产及整体经济产生怎样的反馈影响？
一、居民端究竟怎么了？
历史来看，个人按揭贷款违约概率的提升并非简单的
微观现象，而是与居民整体就业、收入等宏观经济大
势紧密相连。近日全国多地居民“停贷”风波发酵。
与此同时，二季度 31 个大城市城镇调查失业率、16-
24 岁人口调查失业率均创历史新高，全国居民收入
环比增幅创历史同期新低。
图 1. 房贷违约与失业率相关 来源：WIND，中国债券网，笔者测算
注：逾期率为住房贷款 ABS 逾期率。
Picture 1. Correlation of Mortgage Default Rate vs. Unemployment Rate
近三年每轮疫情峰值过后，居民的收入和就业虽都有
阶段性反弹，但力度已明显递减。疫情多次反复及其
管控之下居民预期深度低迷，其资产负债表的长期恶
化注定修复的艰难性。二季度居民收入信心指数创历
史新低，储蓄意愿则创历史新高。
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE
Page 8 第8页
加中金融
Looking at the various economic indicators, the recovery
of residential real estate is the slowest. The recent “loan
suspension” of commercial housing has exposed many
dilemmas in the real estate market, but in essence, it
reflects the rare pressure faced by consumers. The peak
of the current pandemic has passed, can consumer
income and consumption recover? What kind of impact
will it have on the real estate sector and the overall
economy?
1. What happened to the residents?
Historically, the increase of defaults in personal
mortgage loans is not an isolated phenomenon, but
closely related to macro variables such as the
employment rate and income level. Recently, the “loan
suspension” has slowed down, with the unemployment
rate of the 16 to 24 y/o population in 31 of the largest
cities hitting a record high in the second quarter. The
monthly growth of national resident income hit a record
low on the same period.
After the peak of each wave of the pandemic in the past
three years, income level and employment rates have
normalized but are still weak compared to before. In the
second quarter, the residents’ income confidence index
hit a record low, while the willingness to save hit a
record high.
August 2022