Page 13 - CCFA Journal - 8th Issue

加中金融 经济热点 Economy hotspots

“断供潮”兹事体大

根据官方数据，我们估计房企 2013-20 年期间预售房屋的交付率仅为 60%左右，而在这些年间中国住房按揭贷款余额
增加了 26.3 万亿元。由于若干数据质量问题，我们认为实际房屋交付率可能会高得多，但越来越多的房企或无法按期
交房，已成为当前中国房地产市场面临的一大现实问题。此外，即使是近期预售的房屋也面临交付风险，因为部分房
企因财务状况紧张而暂缓甚至完全停止施工，这可能会对 2020 年底至 2022 年 3 月 4.4 万亿元的新增住房贷款造成一
定影响。

以 2020 年为基准，并假设水泥消费量可作为衡量建筑活动情况的有效指标，2021-22 年期间房屋施工面积可能共计增
长了 9.6%，而水泥产量可能共计下降 16.3%，这表明停工项目占项目总量的比重或接近 20.3%。

The stakes here are high

Based on official data, we estimate that developers have only delivered around 60% of homes they pre-sold between 2013
and 2020, while in those years China’s outstanding mortgage loans rose by RMB26.3trn. The real delivery rate might be a lot
higher due to some data quality issues, but the failure of a rising number of developers to deliver homes in a timely manner is
a real problem in China’s property sector at the moment. Meanwhile, even recently pre-sold homes are facing delivery risks as
some developers have slowed or even outright halted construction due to financial strains, likely affecting some of the
RMB4.4trn in new mortgage loans made between end-2020 and March 2022.
Taking year 2020 as a benchmark and assuming cement usage is a good proxy for construction activity, during 2021-22, floor
space under construction could rise by a total of 9.6%, but cement output could drop by a total of 16.3%, suggesting the ratio
of paused projects to total projects might be somewhere close to 20.3%.

高度依赖预售的风险

过去十年间，预售率提升实际上抬高了房企的杠杆水平，许多房企得以迅速扩张。但在预售模式下，房企、购房者、
金融系统以及宏观经济面临的风险日益增大。首先，越来越多的民营房企无法按期施工并交付房屋，削弱了民众从民
营房企（占房地产市场的 80%以上）手中购买新房的意愿，进而导致房企建房的难度加大；其次，原材料价格飞涨或
导致监管账户中的资金不足以支撑完工交付；再次，土地价格下跌、土地资产流动性减少可能会令房企的资产负债表
恶化；最后，地方政府加强对监管账户的监管力度或会加剧房企的流动性问题。

The risks associated with high dependence on presales

The rising presale ratio over the past decade has in effect raised developers’ leverage and allowed many of them to quickly
expand. But presales carry mounting risks for developers, homebuyers, the financial system and the macro economy. First, a
rising number of private developers failing to construct and deliver homes on time reduces households’ willingness to
purchase new homes from private developers (accounting for more than 80% of the property sector), making it even harder
for developers to build homes. Second, a surge in raw material prices may result in funds in escrow accounts being insufficient
for building homes. Third, a drop in land prices and a fall in liquidity in land assets could worsen developers’ balance sheets.
Fourth, a tightening of local governments’ grip on escrow accounts could aggravate developers’ liquidity problems.

今年下半年房地产市场能否实现 V 型复苏？

由于疫情得到有效遏制、货币宽松以及经济强劲反弹，2020 年中国房地产市场实现 V 型复苏。今年市场能否再现 V 型
复苏？尽管受低基数效应的支撑， 主要房地产指标的同比增速未来或将录得反弹，但鉴于奥密克戎新分支的传播力更
强、居民家庭信心趋弱、2015-18 年低线城市新房需求提前释放、中央坚持推行部分房地产调控措施以及前文提到的
各种压力，我们依然认为今年下半年房地产市场难以迅速实现强劲复苏。

Will the property sector see a V-shaped recovery in H2 2022?

The property sector displayed a V-shaped recovery in 2020 thanks to the effective containment of the coronavirus, monetary
easing, and a strong rebound in GDP growth. Will the pattern be repeated this year? A low base will support a recovery in
year-over- year growth in major property indices, but we still don’t see a swift and strong recovery of the property sector in
H2 2022 due to the highly infectious new variants of Covid-19, the reduced confidence of Chinese households, the frontloaded
demand of new homes in 2015-18 in low-tier cities, Beijing’s insistence on keeping some major property curbs due to its
political stance, and the vicious cycle mentioned above.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE August 2022 Page 13 第13页