Page 17 - CCFA Journal - 8th Issue

加中金融 经济热点 Economy hotspots

期房交付情况不佳

2015 年至 2022 年 5 月期间的新房总交付量，即住宅竣工面积共计 51 亿平方米（图 3），占 2014-20 年房屋预售总量
（78 亿平方米）的 65.5%，占 2013-20 年房屋预售总量（87 亿平方米）的 58.8%。假设从预售到交房大约需要 1-2 年
的时间，那么房企 2020 年底前预售房屋的交付率仅为 60%左右。由于若干数据质量问题，我们认为实际房屋交付率
可能存在低估，但部分房企无法按期交房，已成为中国房地产市场的一大现实问题。我们的估计相对保守，原因在于
我们假设所有竣工房屋均用于合约销售，而事实上，现房销售占商品房销售总量的比重约为 10%到 20%。

在购房者对房企日益恶化的资金状况以及由此可能造成延期交房或违约的担忧加重之际，更多迹象表明，自去年四季
度以来，商品房销售已从期房向现房倾斜。根据国家统计局数据，2021 年四季度现房销售同比增速从三季度的- 4.1%
反弹至 0.4%，2022 年一季度进一步跃升至 21.3%（图 4），而去年四季度期房销售同比增速从三季度的-12.5%下挫至
-16.8%，今年一季度仍处于-13.8% 的较低水平。

随着 5 月底部分封控措施的解除，5 月现房销售同比增速从 4 月的-6.8%显著加快至 11.9%，同期期房销售同比增速仅
从-43.0%改善至-37.0%，仍深陷负值区间。受此影响，2022 年 1-5 月期房销售占商品房销售总量的比重从 2021 年的
89.6%和 2020 年的 89.8%明显收窄至 86.7%。

The less favourable picture of the delivery of presold homes
The total delivery of new homes, i.e. the completion of new residential properties, from 2015 until May 2022 totalled 5.1bn
sqm (Figure 3), which is 65.5% of all presales of homes between 2014 and 2020 (7.8bn sqm), and 58.8% of all presales of
homes between 2013 and 2020 (at 8.7bn sqm). Assuming it takes around one to two years from presale to delivery,
developers only delivered around 60% of homes they sold before end-2020.

The real delivery rate might be underestimated due to some data quality issues, but the failure of some developers to deliver
homes on time is a real problem in China’s property sector. Our estimates are conservative in that we assume all home
completions were for contract sales. In reality, around 10% to 20% of new home sales were sales of already finished homes.

Amid homebuyers’ heightening concerns over developers’ worsening funding conditions and thus potential delays or defaults
in home delivery, there is rising evidence that there has been a shift in overall new home sales from presales to sales of
completed homes since Q4 last year. According to official NBS statistics, sales growth in completed homes rose notably from -
4.1% y-o-y in Q3 to 0.4% in Q4 2021 and 21.3% in Q1 2022 (Figure 4), while growth in presales fell from -12.5% y-o-y in Q3 to -
16.8% in Q4 2021 and -13.8% in Q1 2022.

With the unwinding of some lockdowns in late-May, sales growth of completed homes rebounded sharply to 11.9% y-o-y in
May from -6.8% in April, while growth in presales remained deeply negative at -37.0% y-o-y, albeit improving from -43.0%. As
a result, the ratio of presales over overall new home sales volume fell notably to 86.7% in January-May this year from 89.6% in
2021 and 89.8% in 2020.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE August 2022 Page 17 第17页