Page 14 - CCFA Journal - 8th Issue

经济热点 Economy hotspots 加中金融

多地上演“断供潮”

近几周来，多方新闻报道显示，全国多地业主集体发布声明称，如果房企预售楼盘不复工，就将停止还贷。此次“断
供潮”始于江西景德镇，而后扩散至河南、湖南、湖北三省的二线和低线城市。

根据房地产信息提供商克而瑞（CRIC）的数据，截至 7 月 13 日，业主发布强制停贷的楼盘数量至少有 100 个，涉及全
国 50 多个城市。由于预售房屋延期交付、交房时间不明确、停止施工等原因，相关楼盘的业主已联合发布“停贷”
告知书，要求停止偿还贷款直至项目复工。这些购房者认为，贷款银行存在违规向滥用预售资金的房企发放贷款等行
为，而按规定，预售资金应随着项目的施工进度进行拨付。

此次“断供潮”波及的城市包括河南省的许昌、新乡、周口、商丘、郑州、漯河、南阳，湖南省的长沙、邵阳，以及
湖北省的咸宁、武汉、随州等地。类似的事件也在江西、辽宁、陕西、山西、广东、河北、广西、江苏、云南、吉林、
四川、山东、福建、安徽等地上演。这些受波及的城市主要集中在中国中部地区。但据我们所知，在经济较发达的中
国东部地区也曾发生过楼房烂尾事件。

The bottom-up movement of stopping mortgage repayments

Over the past couple of weeks, a growing number of news reports (source: Bloomberg) suggest there has been an increasing
number of home-buyers collectively protesting against developers and threatening to stop their mortgage payments if
construction does not resume. The movement originated in Jingdezhen city of Jiangxi province in central China that later
spread to other tier-two and lower-tier cities in the three main provinces of Henan, Hunan and Hubei.

Based on from the China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC), a leading provider of real estate information, home-
buyers have already been “stopping mortgage payments” on at least 100 residential property projects in more than 50 cities
across China as of 13 July. As a consequence of the postponed delivery of pre-sold homes, unclear delivery times, and halted
construction, people that have bought homes from these projects collectively have threatened to stop paying the outstanding
mortgage payments if the construction of these projects is not resumed. These home-buyers believe that commercial banks
have inappropriately released their funds (from their mortgage loans) – against the regulations that loans are not allowed to
be issued unless construction is property conducted – to developers that have misused the funds from these mortgage loans.

Cities affected by the movement include Xuchang and many cities. Geographically, these cities are predominantly located in
central parts of China. Based on our knowledge, failure to deliver homes has taken place in more developed eastern China as
well.

预售制的主导地位及相关风险
过去二十年来，中国房企广泛使用新房预售作为主要的融资渠道。在今年之前，2021 年预售占新房总销量的比重已从
2005 年的 57.7%稳步扩大至 89.6%

（图 1）。

尽管预售比重大幅提升，但仍可能低估了近年来房企对预售融资的依赖度， 因为房企倾向于在房地产开发的早期阶段
出售房屋，以增加杠杆率、尽快获得现金收入，从而利用这些资金购买更多土地进行扩张。始于 2014 年的 PSL 项目极
大推动了这一趋势，因为在该项目下央行投放的 3.6 万亿元资金涌入了预售监管相当宽松的低线城市。在许多情况下，
房企在打好地基后可立即获得预售许可证。

从资金面来看，2021 年房企依靠房屋销售获得资金的比重从 2008 年的 33.6%稳步升至 52.9%。相比之下，同期房企对
金融机构贷款的依赖程度则从 19.2%降至 11.6%（图 2）。按照规定，为保障购房者的合法权益，一定比例的预售资金
将 存入银行监管账户，并交由市级政府监管。但事实上，房企有可能会挪用大笔预售资金买地，导致没有足够资金施
工建房。

The dominance of presales and their associated risks

Chinese developers have extensively used presales as a major channel for funding over the past two decades. Before this year,
the ratio of presales to total new home sales (by volume) had steadily risen to 89.6% in 2021 from 57.7% in 2005 (Figure 1).

The rapid rise in the headline presale ratio may underestimate the extent of developers’ reliance on presales for funding in
recent years because developers have tended to sell homes at earlier stages of property development to increase leverage,
get cash revenue as quickly as possible, and use that revenue to buy even more land for expansion. The PSL program, which
started in 2014, greatly facilitated this trend because the program pumped a total of RMB3.6trn printed by the PBoC to lower-
tier cities, where regulations on presales are quite loose (see China: Helicopter money for low-tier cities, 13 August 2018). In
many cases, developers received the licenses to sell homes right after they laid the foundations.
From a funding perspective, developers’ reliance on home sales for financing steadily rose to 52.9% in 2021 from 33.6% in
2008. By contrast, developers’ dependence on loans from financial institutions dropped to 11.6% in 2021 from 19.2% in 2008
(Figure 2). According to China’s regulations to safeguard home-buyers’ rights, a certain percentage of proceeds from presales
is put in escrow accounts managed by local governments, but it’s quite common for developers to spend a large chunk of the
presale proceeds on purchasing land and leave insufficient funds for constructing homes.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE August 2022
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