Page 11 - CCFA Journal - 8th Issue

加中金融 经济热点 Economy hotspots

展望未来，政策层面或采取措施应对“停贷”事件，但居民购房决策将更趋谨慎。基建投资虽走强，其对居民端就业、
收入等拉动作用却相对有限。变异毒株的极强传播力及其管控仍将持续对居民端修复产生负向影响，年内商品房销售
增速转正的时点预计推迟到四季度末。

三、基本结论

一是历史来看，个人按揭贷款违约概率的提升并非简单的微观现象，而是与居民整体就业、收入等宏观变量紧密相连。
近三年每轮疫情峰值过后，居民收入和就业状况都会有所修复，但其力度已明显递减。居民资产负债表的长期深度恶
化，注定其修复过程的艰难性。

二是居民购房决策的函数似乎发生显著变化。疫情前，居民收入及预期稳定，房贷利率等需求端调控政策是影响商品
房销售的主要变量。但疫情以来，房贷利率虽有下降但幅度有限，购房者考虑的不仅是利率，更重要的是疫情反复扰
动下其收入及房贷还款的可持续性。

三是展望未来，政策层面或采取措施应对“停贷”事件，但居民购房决策将更趋谨慎。基建虽走强，其对居民就业、
收入拉动作用却相对有限，地产修复仍将缓慢。海外确诊人数抬升，该指标往往领先于国内疫情，变异毒株的极强传
播力及其管控仍将持续压制居民端修复。

Looking forward, it will take time for consumers to adapt to the “loan suspension” event, with many being more cautious in
their purchasing decisions. Although the infrastructure is stronger, its effects on employment and income are limited. The
mutated strain of COVID-19 is highly transmissible and this will continue to slow down China’s economic recovery. It is
expected that the growth rate of commercial housing sales in China will turn positive at the end of the fourth quarter.

3. Conclusion
Firstly, historically, the increase of defaults in personal mortgage loans is not an isolated phenomenon, but closely related to
macro variables such as the employment rate and income level. After the peak of each wave of the pandemic in the past three
years, income level and employment rates have normalized but are still weak compared to before. It is difficult for normal
citizens to see an extended recovery of their personal balance sheets.

Secondly, the aim of buying residential real estate in China has changed significantly. Before the pandemic, residents’ income
and expectations were stable, and demand-side policies such as mortgage rates were the main variables affecting housing
sales. However, the mortgage rates have only slightly decreased since the pandemic, with buyers not only considering the
interest rate but also their income sustainability which is required for their mortgage repayments.

Thirdly, looking forward to the future, the policy may take time to deal with this “loan suspension” event, and residents will be
more cautious in their purchasing decisions. Although the infrastructure is stronger, its effects on residents’ employment and
income are limited, which implies that the real estate restoration will be slow. The number of confirmed cases of COVID has
risen outside China, and this typically is indicative of pandemic within the borders. The mutated strain of COVID-19 is highly
transmissible and this will continue to slow down economic recovery.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE August 2022 Page 11 第11页