Page 9 - CCFA Journal - 8th Issue

加中金融 经济热点 Economy hotspots

图 2. 疫情反复，居民端修复弹性递减 来源：WIND，笔者测算
注：就业为月环比；各指标为较历史均值的差值。

Picture 2. Pandemic Waves: New jobs vs. Confidence

二、居民端能否修复？ 2. Can consumer expectations recover?
The aim of buying residential real estate in China has
居民购房决策的函数正发生显著变化。疫情之前，居
民收入及预期相对稳定，可支配收入年均增速保持在 changed significantly. Before the pandemic, residents’
8-10%左右，房贷利率等需求调控政策是影响商品房 income and expectations were stable, with the average
annual growth rate of disposable income at around 8-
销售的主要变量。但疫情以来，房贷利率虽有下降但 10%. The main factor affecting housing sales were
幅度有限，购房者考虑的不仅是利率，更重要的是疫 demand-side policies such as mortgage rates, and the
情 反 复 扰 动 下 其 收 入 及 房 贷 还 款 的 可 持 续 性 。
rates have only slightly decreased since the pandemic
highs, with buyers considering both the higher
borrowing cost and their personal income sustainability

.

图 3. 疫情之前，购房看利率 来源：WIND，笔者测算

Picture 3. Income, Housing Market and Mortgage Rate: Before the Pandemic

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE August 2022 Page 9 第9页