Page 5 - CCFA Journal - 8th Issue

加中金融 经济热点 Economy hotspots

2021 年下半年，宏观经济出现了“三重压力”，需求收缩、供给冲击和预期转弱。这个背景之下，又有在前几年房地产
业界高歌猛进的恒大，突然出现了资金链严重的危机局面。很多人担心恒大之后还有谁？网上开出长长的一个名单，人们
就开始有了一种担心，会不会出现多米诺骨牌式的连锁反应。

另一方面，从这次的断供现象来看，中国大陆借鉴香港的卖楼花预售制度，是否有扭曲、有值得我们反省之处。现在还是
众说纷纭，见仁见智。它确实有当年在美国，从次贷危机一步一步演变出来，落入不可收拾局面，最后形成冲击全球经济
和社会生活的金融危机的可能。

因此，房地产问题绝对不能再拖半年，如果矛盾累积演化，可能会出现非常不利的局面。政府施策要跟国务院现在所说的
刻不容缓稳定经济结合在一起，尽快出手，采取尽可能合理的政策措施。在这方面做出必要的扶助以缓和矛盾。

开发商烂尾从而导致居民断供，需由政府出面来协调处理缓解矛盾，通过磋商，化解冲突。例如银行方面暂缓，对开发商
扶持一下，以时间换和谐，逐渐收尾。对于已经形成的财富，政府没收以后，需要合理运用各种方法，能够切实做到符合
人民利益。资金方面，财政要发力，社会资金也可以引导，也可以调动。

In the second half of 2021, a "triple pressure" has already emerged in the macro economy, with demand shrinking, supply shocks
and weakening expectations. Even worse, the Evergrande group, which has made great progress in the real estate industry in the
past few years, had suddenly reported a serious crisis in the capital chain. Many people worried about who is the next after
Evergrande? When a long list is published online, people start to worried about whether there will be a domino-effect.

On the other hand, property suppliers are boycotting this time, it is worth reflecting on whether mainland China should learn from
Hong Kong's method of selling residential buildings in advance sale. Still, opinions vary， in the past, the subprime mortgage
crisis in the United States has gradually evolved into a financial crisis that has hit the global economy and social life. Will likely the
same happen this time?

So the real estate problem is urgent, if the problem continues to escalate could result in serious situation. The government's
actions need to be cope with the urgent measures of stabilizing the economy as what The State Council now focuses, to act as
soon as possible, to take the most reasonable measures possible, and to provide all necessary supports to ease the tension.
When developers fail to finish the real estate projects causing residents stop paying loans, it is up to the government to take lead
balancing and smoothing conflicts and solve the problems. For example, the bank supports funding to the developers, gradually
complete building.

现在贯彻中央经济会议所要求的“迎接二十大胜利召开”。最主要的方面是谨慎的同时更加安全、稳定。面对疫情反复带
来的困扰，需要及时做出反应，防止问题进一步恶化，控制事态，这样解决问题的成本相对较低。

另一方面，中央对于房地产业界需要一个健康发展的长效机制。在 2016 年的中央经济工作会议上，对此有一个基本认识，
就是基础性制度建设。所谓基础性制度建设指什么？至少包括以下四个方面。

一是土地制度，在整个发展过程中的国土开发，得在保证粮食安全，基本农田占补平衡大前提之下，同时为城镇化供地，
形成有效供给。土地制度需要深化改革。

二是住房制度，如何形成住房体系的有效供给，实现所有人住有所居至关重要。怎么样形成“商品房”和“保障房”双轨
统筹的整个住房体系的有效供给，来实现所有人的住有所居？保障房如何建和如何托底需要政策支持。长租房、一般商品
房以及高端的“洋房”、独立别墅，都得多元化供应。这个住房的体系需要依赖制度安排和改革，以适应社会长治久安。
我们现在仍然面临需要优化调整的改革任务，需要更完善的制度。

As for the wealth that has been formed, the government needs to rationally use various methods to deal with it, so as to
effectively meet the interests of the people. In terms of financial support, the state finance should be supportive and private
capital can also be properly guided and mobilized.
Now in the run-up to the 20th National Congress of the Party of China, the most important aspect is secure and stable while being
cautious. Facing with the repeated threat of COVID, the government needs to respond in a timely manner to prevent the problem
from getting worse and contain the situation, so that the cost of solving the problem is relatively low. On the other hand, the
central government needs a long-term effective mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate industry.

Back in 2016, the Central Economic Work Conference committed to establish the basic system framework. What do we mean by
building basic framework? At least include the following four aspects.

The first is the land system. The land development in the entire development process must ensure food security and balance the
occupation and compensation of basic farmland, while providing land for urbanization to form an effective supply. The land
system needs to be further reformed.

The second is the housing system. How to form an effective supply of the housing system and realize that all people have a place
to live is very important. How to form an effective supply of the entire housing system with dual-track planning of “commercial
housing” and “security housing” to achieve housing for all? How to build and support affordable housing needs policy support.
Long-term rental housing, general commercial housing, and high-end "bungalows" and independent villas all have to be
diversified in supply. This housing system needs to rely on institutional arrangements and reforms to adapt to the long-term
stability of the society. We are still facing reform tasks that need to be optimized and adjusted, also we need a better system.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE August 2022 Page 5 第5页