Page 4 - CCFA Journal - 8th Issue

经济热点 Economy hotspots 加中金融

An in-depth Macro Analysis of Cease-loan in Real Estate Market

房地产市场停贷事件的深层宏观分析

【作者】 贾康博士：中国第十一届、十二届全国政协委员，华夏新供给经
济学研究院院长。曾长期担任财政部财政科学研究所所长。贾康博士是孙冶
方经济学奖、黄达—蒙代尔经济学奖和中国软科学大奖获得者。

About the author. Dr. Kang Jia, member of CPPCC, the President of China
Academy of New Supply-side Economics. He was the President of the Research
Institute of Fiscal Science of Ministry of Finance. He obtained many prestigious
prizes in economic research.

本文由志愿者李晗翻译

今年上半年的房贷停贷事件，包括资金链的断裂、烂尾楼等等，从房地产本身来看，我认为对这个事件要高度重视，管理
部门也应及时采取必要措施来化解矛盾。房地产是我们整个国民经济的支柱产业。在这个支柱产业健康发展的过程中，要
强调对业界的刚需，得到投融资的保障。

资金链断裂，原因比较复杂。中国的房地产市场这几年在演变过程中，始终没能满足中央要求的健康发展长效机制。客观
上来讲，中国的房地产市场，是跟随中国的工业化、城镇化、市场化和国际化、信息化应该有充分成长性的一个国民经济
支柱产业。但是已经在前面十几年表现了几轮过山车似的，或者打摆子式的由热到冷、由冷到热的演变过程。但很遗憾，
在几轮打摆子、坐过山车的过程中间，始终还是治标而没有治本。特别是 2020 年疫情发生之后，房地产市场总体的基调
是低迷。

In the first half of this year, there was a large-scale housing loan suspension event, including the break of the capital chain, the
end of the building project and so on, and continue to ferment. I urge the relevant administrative departments should take
necessary timely measures to address the issues. Real estate is the pillar industry of our entire national economy. the impact of
rigid demand over the economy may be emphasized to ensure the investment and financing continuity in place.

The causes of capital chain break are complicated. During the evolution of China's real estate market in recent years, it has never
been able to meet the central government's requirements for an effective mechanism for long-term healthy development.
Following the development of China's industrialization, urbanization, marketization, internationalization and information
technology, China's real estate market is a pillar industry of the national economy that with sufficient growth.

In reality, the real estate market has been on a few rounds of roller-coaster rides for the past decade or so, or a process of sudden
changes like being sick, sometimes cold, sometimes hot. But it's a pity that after a few roller coaster rides, it's always treating the
symptoms rather than the root causes. Especially after the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, the develop of real estate market is
generally slowly.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE August 2022
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