Page 12 - CCFA Journal - 8th Issue

经济热点 Economy hotspots 加中金融

China: Property Sector’s Downturn Shows Renewed Weakness

宏观点评：房地产市场重现疲态

【陆挺，特许金融分析师 (CFA)，北京大学经济学学士、硕士，美国加州大学伯克利分
校经济学博士。2018 年 5 月，加入野村证券，任中国区首席经济学家。加入野村前，
曾任华泰证券研究所所长、首席经济学家和董事总经理，美国银行美林证券大中华区首
席经济学家和董事总经理】

Dr. Ting Lu

本文由高挺博士翻译

“不交房，不还贷”

近几周来，多地业主集体发布声明称，如果房企预售楼盘不复工，就将停止偿还房贷。国内房地产开发项目普遍实行
预售制，因此“断供”事件的影响不容小觑。由于越来越多的房企未能按期施工并交付预售房屋，商品房预售制可能
会引发恶性循环，而传播力更强的奥密克戎新分支或将加剧市场的螺旋式下滑趋势（参见《迎战传播力更强的奥密克
戎毒株》，2022 年 7 月 12 日）。

在我们看来，下半年房地产市场距离真正复苏仍有较长一段路要走，而中国的“沃尔克时刻”还尚未结束（参见《宏
观大报告：中国或将面临“沃尔克时刻”》，2021 年 9 月 3 日），市场可能对整体经济，尤其是房地产市场的前景过
于乐观。我们格外关注本次“断供潮”对金融市场产生的影响，因为中国房地产市场降温可能会在挫伤高收益离岸美
元债市场后，最终对境内金融机构造成冲击。预售制大幅抬高了房企的杠杆水平，因此贸然去杠杆不仅可能导致房企
信贷紧缩、离岸美元债市场出现大规模违约，还可能导致在中国金融体系占据核心地位的银行不良贷款增加。

“No delivery of homes, no mortgage repayment”

Over the past couple of weeks, a rising number of homebuyers have collectively threatened to stop making mortgage
payments to banks if developers do not resume construction of homes that were pre-sold to them. Presales are the most
common way of selling homes in China, so the stakes there are high. As an increasing number of developers have failed to
build and deliver pre-sold homes in a timely manner, the presales model is likely to result in a vicious cycle, while the
increasingly infectious subvariants of Omicron may exacerbate the downward spiral (see China: Gearing up to fight a more
infectious Omicron strain, 11 July 2022).
We believe a real recovery in the property sector in H2 2022 still appears far-fetched, the Chinese-style Volcker moment is not
over yet (see Asia Special Report - China: Beijing’s Volcker moment, 24 August 2021), and markets may be too optimistic
about the economy in general and the property sector in particular. We are especially concerned about the financial impact of
the homebuyers’ “stopping mortgage repayments” movement, as China’s property downturn may finally adversely affect
onshore financial institutions after hitting the offshore high-yield dollar bond market. The presale model has significantly
increased developers’ leverage, so a disorderly deleveraging may not only lead to a credit crunch for developers and massive
defaults in offshore dollar bond markets, but also rising non-performing loans for banks, which sit at the centre of China’s
financial system.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE August 2022
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