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obvious statement, right? Wrong.

unable to identify the central varia- not seem to support the view that the that community or social system. level), a considerable degree of parti-
bles of the equation linking the two. poor worldwide are heading toward Proceeding from here one can draw a cipation from and partnership with
Some views focus mainly on the better protection against hazards. risk management plan. The plan must civil society is necessary, and indeed
international dimension of the pro- change as vulnerability evolves. This, desirable. In particular we have not
blem, which implies a prime role by Aside from these political considera- and not risk avoidance, is at the basis deepened enough the analysis of how
states and the United Nations sys- tions, which do remain of paramount of resilience. pertinent and related disaster reduc-
tem, while many others tend to iden- importance, only a shift in mental Many experts are becoming impatient tion is in the daily lives of the people
tify with the problems individuals attitude can generate the appropriate with the time is taking to walk the in the communities that we say are
have to face every day in their com- critical mass required to take action bridge linking (rather than separating) the ultimate focus of our efforts.
munities. Others emphasise the at domestic as well as international concepts and action. This is a good
regional dimension of both the issue levels. This has to happen one way sign; it is healthy frustration. It means The wide range of scientific and tech-
and its possible solutions. This is not or the other if we are to become that they feel comfortable with the set nical tools we command nowadays
surprising, but it is yet another indi- more successful. of models and principles elaborated so should be used more to study the next
cator of how little policy develop- Commitment and resources have far. In the well known (but seldom threat that we will have to face, rather
ment there has been in the field of to be redistributed from reaction used in organizations' life) logical that dissecting the latest disaster. By
disaster reduction so far. Instead, it is measures to proactive investment in sequence of know, understand, reflect, looking back we may not see new
high time to take a much broader more balanced system in which pre- take action, we have come mid way. forms of hazards and interrelation
view of risk and vulnerability and vention is the rule and emergency We know WHAT has to be done; we between them coming our way, pos-
realise how determinant a factor this management is its necessary (indis- are increasingly sure of HOW to do it sibly in a not so distant future. In
is for states, communities and indivi- pensable) corollary. We are now facing the task of gathe- some critical and fast-moving techni-
duals. It is time to define parameters Attention and studies have to migra- ring the energy and the consensus to cal areas like remote sensing and GIS
to study how delaying prevention te from hazards to the vulnerability of just do it. This calls for a series of we should move past the cartogra-
can provoke progressive impove- people and the built environment to efforts than may appear simpler than phic standards developed to serve the
rishment in developing countries - them. Investigating hazards better car- they are in reality. But we have come emergency management circuit. We
not just make sustainable develop- ries limited marginal gains in terms of way closer to the point when it will be should evaluate, recognize and bring
ment more difficult to achieve. reducing actual risk and has not gene- difficult to find a valid excuse for to bear the potential satellite applica-
rated a satisfactory prevention divi- omitting to factor vulnerability aspects tions have for assessing vulnerability
Take the UN Millennium Goals, for dend for the society. and prevention models into develop- and help planners to analyse and
instance. Here again it is not a ques- Preparedness, the fulcrum of cur- ment projects and internationally fun- manage risk. We should support
tion of how relevant disaster reduc- rently accepted disaster management ded capacity building initiatives. international efforts to develop and
tion is to this or that goal. Rather, and models, must shift from preparedness merge hedge technology in this area.
in all honestly, most of the Goals to respond quicker to preparedness to This will require involvement from a These techniques will allow for inte-
may not achievable under the current avoid impact and readiness to large number of sectors because of grated monitoring and reporting on
mix of risk prevention and emergen- respond when needed. Here again it the typical horizontal nature of dis- risk reduction practices. Without
cy response. Analysts have discove- is a question of marginal utility: aster prevention and the need to ela- such monitoring no guidance, eva-
red that disaster response as we increasing the weapons to respond borate integrated solutions to each luation and further progress will ever
know it might erode over time a does not curb risk and leaves vulne- problem. Therefore instead of speci- be possible. After all we could spot
nation's capacity to absorb the rability almost unaffected. fic actions, programmes should add- water on Mars. We might just as well
impact of disasters. This is some- Development activities, especially in ress a action fronts iv. Some a fronts invest something more in observing
thing we ought to investigate more the context of development assistance, a should be targeted before others. our own planet.
thoroughly. In yet another case, vul- are the greatest generator of exposure Education and national legislation,
nerability to disasters carries more to hazards for communities worldwi- for example, are two indispensable Not so long ago, disasters were
weight than generally thought in the de. Arguing that disaster prevention is pillars, each for specific reasons that considered as acts of god even in
area of social conflict. Because of its a component of long-term develop- are not difficult to understand. A set legal and insurance practices. Within
deeply rooted link with poverty, vul- ment is not enough: it is development, of national laws envisaging preven- that logic one could argue that the
nerability to hazards is a potent des- in its responsible and well-planned tion as such is not only a clear indi- best prevention is ... a luck iv. The
tabilising agent when added to situa- version that must become also an cator of correct understanding and problem with being lucky is that one
tions like civil unrest, extreme pover- instrument for prevention. Societies prioritisation, it is also the condicio cannot be lucky every single day...
ty and conflict The number of peo- should prevent as they develop. sine qua non of actual widespread If one's community is vulnerable to
ple displaced by conflict is still sligh- I Risk management models current- implementation at national level. hazards that do exist in that area, then
tly less than those displaced by ly employed in national planning are Similarly to prevention in public a disaster is only a matter of time, not
hazards, especially drought. We are in most cases three decades old: they health, disaster prevention cannot be of good or back luck.
talking in the tens of millions. Yet target risk as a combination of factors achieved through bottom-up dyna- Francesco Pisano
the latter are far and out from the equated in a way generally useful mics alone. It is not sufficient to Geneva
spotlight If one were to push this only for risk avoidance schemes. know one's vulnerability and how to The author has worked for the
thinking even further, one might These models are ineffective in high- remedy for it to happen. Clear, enfor- United Nations for 12 years in the
come to question current develop- risk, low-development scenarios. ced and monitored laws are necessa- area of humanitarian affairs and
ment models as elements of additio- Here the pivot of the equation is vul- ry. And they must carry sanctions disaster prevention. Presently he
nal exposure of the poor to additional nerability of people and things to a set against violations. Yet, because of its works for UNITAR in a program-
hazards instead of the opposite goal of hazards. Once this factor has been multidisciplinary essence and becau- me dedicated to the use of space
for which they are elaborated and weighted properly one can determine se prevention begins where vulnera- applications for humanitarian
funded. Be it as it may, statistics do the level of risk that is acceptable to bility is generated (i.e. at individual relief and disaster management.

1.2005 Diva 19