Page 56 - SE Outlook Regions 2023

2.7 Macroeconomy - Montenegro

Montenegro key economic figures and forecasts

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.0 4.1 4.9 ?

Real GDP (% y/y) 2.9 4.7 5.1 4.1 -15.3 13 6.9

Unemployment rate (avg, %) 17.7 16.1 15.2 15.1 17.9 13 ?

Consumer prices (avg, % y/y) -0.3 2.4 -2.6 0.4 -0.3 2.4 12.3

Consumer prices (eop, % y/y) 1.0 1.9 1.6 1.0 -0.9 4.6 ?

General budget balance (% of GDP) -6.2 -6.8 -6.2 -1.8 -10.9 -1.9 -4.9

Current account balance (% of GDP) -16.2 -16.0 -17.0 -14.3 -26.0 -9.2 -10.2

Source: IMF, Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH

2.7.1 GDP growth

Montenegro’s economy is seen posting robust growth in 2022, at
around 7%, but the effects of the Russian war in Ukraine have dragged
the GDP growth down and that trend should continue in 2023.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), growth will slow
down to 2.5% in 2023 from an estimated 7.2% in 2022. The World Bank
has a more optimistic projection that Montenegro’s GDP will grow by
3.4% in 2023 from 6.9% in 2022, due to slowing private consumption.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
expects that Montenegro’s economy will grow by as much as 4% in
2023, while the European Commission has estimated it at just 2.9%. In
2024 the economy should speed up to 3.2%, mainly thanks to the
tourism sector and investment in renewable energy generation.

56 SE Outlook 2023 www.intellinews.com