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AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec

examine the details closely and, as in the case according to IEA figures, with renewables,
of Japan recently, not be slow to express disap- including large-scale hydro, at 28%.
pointment if they do not add up to substantially Beijing’s ability to reduce coal’s share to net
improved targets. zero in the decades will be crucial for meeting
Xi referred to improving China’s NDC in his any emissions target. As well as renewables,
UN speech this week. nuclear is also a central part of the country’s
“China will scale up its Intended Nationally power policy and China has plans to build over
Determined Contributions by adopting more 50 new reactors.
vigorous policies and measures,” he said. In populated coastal cities, nuclear, renew-
Importantly, he said that the 2030 peak would ables and gas are on the rise, while the coun-
refer to CO2 only, and not wider greenhouse try’s major newbuild coal projects are in inland
gases (GHGs). provinces.
“China currently emits over 10bn tonnes of Power has been central to jump-starting Chi-
carbon dioxide and will need to make signifi- na’s post-COVID-19 recovery. Investment in
cant efforts to reach net-zero without affecting power generation has been picking up in 2020.
its economic development,” Wood Mackenzie Capital spending on utilities grew 14% y/y in
Asia-Pacific head of markets and transitions January-May, even as overall capital spending
Prakash Sharma said. fell by 6%, according to official statistics.
“In Wood Mackenzie’s recently released Renewables capacity could climb by 25%
Accelerated Energy Transition Scenario (AET- y/y to 70 GW, the government predicts. On the
2), we have China’s emissions fall nearly 60% by other hand, after the February lockdown, Beijing
2040 from [their] 2019 level using electrification, approved 40 GW of new coal-fired capacity.
renewables, green hydrogen and carbon removal In Europe, several countries have commit-
technologies. We expect China will need to ted to a coal phase-out: France by 2022; the UK
deploy over a billion tonnes [of] carbon, capture by 2024; Italy by 2025; even Germany by 2038.
and storage [CCS] capacity across its power and There are no indications that China is commit-
industrial sectors. These efforts will need to start ting to any date.
much earlier and at a higher scale to deliver on While Xi’s comments are welcome and tie in
[its] carbon-neutral goal by 2060.” with global Paris Agreement aspirations, many
details need to worked out.
Energy mix Nevertheless, it is a clear statement that Bei-
Yet it will be difficult for China. Coal accounted jing takes climate change seriously and is a major
for 64% of the country’s generating capacity, boost for the energy transition.™

Week 38 23•September•2020 www. NEWSBASE .com P5