Page 43 - The Economist Asia January 2018

SPECIAL REPORT
THE FUTURE OF WAR

The new battlegrounds

War is still a contest of wills, but technology and geopolitical
competition are changing its character, argues Matthew Symonds
IN THE PAST, predictions about future warfare have often put too much CONTENTS
emphasis on new technologies and doctrines. In the 19th century the
speedy victory ofthe Prussian army over France in 1870 convinced Euro- 5 Great-power conflict
pean general staffs that rapid mobilisation by rail, quick-firing artillery Pride and prejudice
and a focus on attack would make wars short and decisive. Those ideas
were put to the test at the beginning ofthe first world war. The four years 7 Information war
oftrench warfare on the western front proved them wrong. My truth against yours
In the 1930s it was widely believed that aerial bombardment of cit- 8 Hybrid warfare
ieswould prove devastatingenough to promptalmostimmediate capitu- Shades of grey
lation. That forecast came true only with the invention of nuclear weap- 9 Cities
ons a decade later. When America demonstrated in the first Gulf war in
1990-91whata combination ofitsprecision-guided munitions, new intel- House to house
ligence, surveillance and reconnaissance methods, space-based commu- 10 Power projection
nications and stealth technology could achieve, many people assumed Stay well back
thatin future the Westwould alwaysbe able to relyon swift, painlessvic- 12 Threats to nuclear stability
tories. But after the terrorist attacks on America on September 11th 2001, Not so MAD
wars tooka different course.
This special report will therefore offer its predictions with humility. 13 Military robotics
It will also limit them to the next 20 years or so, because beyond that the War at hyperspeed
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
uncertaintiesbecome overwhelming. And itwill notspeculate about the
As well as those mentioned in the clear and present danger of war breaking out over North Korea’s nuclear 15 Autonomous weapons
text, the author would like to weapons, which with luck can be contained. Instead, it will outline the Man and machine
express special thanks to the
following people for their help in long-term trends in warfare that can be identified with some confidence.
preparing this special report: In the past half-century wars between states have become exceed-
Douglas Barrie, Susanna Blume, ingly rare, and those between great powers and their allies almost non-
Justin Bronk, Gen Sir Nicholas existent, mainly because of the mutually destructive power of nuclear
Carter, Malcolm Chalmers, Emil Dall,
Robert Einhorn, Sir Lawrence weapons, international legal constraints and the declining appetite for
Freedman, Andrew Glazzard, Mark violence of relatively prosperous societies. On the other hand, intrastate
Gunzinger, Kathleen Hicks, Karin von or civil wars have been relatively numerous, especially in fragile or fail-
Hippel, Andrew Krepinevich, James ingstates, and have usually proved long-lasting. Climate change, popula-
Lewis, Lt Col Debi Lomax, Thomas
Mahnken, Raj Shah, James Sullivan, tion growth and sectarian or ethnic extremism are likely to ensure that A list of sources is at
Trevor Taylor and Andrew Tyler. such wars will continue. 1 Economist.com/specialreports
The Economist January 27th 2018 3