Page 47 - The Economist Asia January 2018

SPECIAL REPORT
THE FUTURE OF WAR

2 be growing. China resents the American naval presence in the Taiwan Strait to show its resolve, as it did in 1996.
western Pacific, and particularlythe “freedom ofnavigation” op- How such tensions will play out depends partly on Ameri-
erations that the US Seventh Fleet conducts in the South China ca’s allies. If Japan’s recently re-elected prime minister, Shinzo
Sea to demonstrate that America will not accept any Chinese Abe, succeeds in his ambition to change the country’s pacifist
claims or actions in the region that threaten its core national in- constitution, the Japanese navy is likely to increase its capabili-
terests orthose ofits allies. ties and more explicitly train to fight alongside its American
Foritspart, China isplanningto develop itsA2/ADcapabili- counterpart. At the same time other, weaker allies such as Viet-
ties, especially long-range anti-ship missiles and a powerful nam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia may conclude
navy equipped with state-of-the-art surface vessels and a large that bowing to Chinese military and economic power is a safer
submarine force. The idea isfirstto push the USNavybeyond the bet than hopingfora decliningAmerica to fight theircorner.
“first island chain” and ultimately make it too dangerous for it to The greatest danger lies in miscalculation through a failure
operate within the “second island chain” (see map, previous to understand an adversary’s intentions, leading to an un-
page). Neither move is imminent, but China has already made a planned escalation that runs out of control. Competition in the
lot of progress. If there were a new crisis over Taiwan, America “grey zone” between peace and war requires constant calibra-
would no longersend an aircraft-carrierbattle group through the tion that could all too easily be lost in the heat ofthe moment. 7

My truth against yours

The power of fake news and undue influence
THERE IS NOTHING new about either fake
news or Russian disinformation campaigns.
Back in 1983, at the height of the cold war, an
extraordinary story appeared in a little-
known pro-Soviet newspaper called the
Patriot. It claimed to have evidence that the
Pentagon had deliberately created AIDSas a
biological weapon and was ready to export
the virus to other countries, mainly in the
developing world, as a way of gaining control
over them. Within a few years the story had
reappeared in mainstream publications in
more than 50 countries.
In February last year, in the wake of
revelations about Russia’s interference in
America’s presidential election but before
the full extent of its activities on Facebook,
Twitter and Google had become known, the But which one?
Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu,
announced that he had created units within confirm their prejudices. bound to adapt accordingly. Rand Waltzman,
the army to wage an information war: “Es- Facebook now estimates that during aformer programme manager at America’s
sentially the information conflict is a compo- and after the American election in 2016 a Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency
nent of general conflict. Deriving from that, Russian-linked troll farm called the Internet (DARPA) and now at the RANDCorporation,
Russia has made an effort to form structures Research Agency was responsible for at least explains that “when target forces start to
that are engaged in this matter.” He added 120 fake pages and 80,000 posts that were counter these [Russian] efforts and/or
that these were far more effective than directly received by 29m Americans. Through expose them on a large scale, the Russians
anything Russia had used before for “coun- sharing and liking, the number multiplied to are likely to accelerate the improvement of
ter-propaganda” purposes. A week earlier, nearly 150m, about two-thirds of the poten- their techniques…in other words, an infor-
General Petr Pavel, the Czech head of NATO’s tial electorate. The ads aimed to exploit mation-warfare arms race is likely to ensue.”
military committee, had revealed that a false America’s culture wars. Similar IOhave been In the future, “fake news” put together
report of a rape by German soldiers in Lithu- launched in Europe, where Russia attempts to with the aid of artificial intelligence will be so
ania had been concocted by Russia. bolster support for populist movements that realistic that even the best-resourced and
The internet and social media are oppose liberal social norms. most professional news organisation will be
creating entirely new opportunities for It is not just Russia that conducts IO hard pressed to tell the difference between
influence operations (IO) and the mass against other countries. Jihadist extremists the real and the made-up sort. Official web-
manipulation of opinion. Those technologies and hacker groups employed by rogue states sites and social-media accounts will become
allow IO accurately to target those people or criminal networks pose similar if lesser increasingly vulnerable to hackers, who may
likely to be most susceptible to their mes- threats. And although the big social-media be able not only to provoke stockmarket
sage, taking advantage of the “echo-cham- companies now claim to be working on sol- crashes and riots but even contrive crises
ber” effect of platforms such as Facebook, utions, including better and quicker attribu- between countries that may induce them to
where users see only news and opinions that tion of messages, Russian IOtechniques are go to war with each other.

The Economist January 27th 2018 7