Page 49 - The Economist Asia January 2018

SPECIAL REPORT
THE FUTURE OF WAR

2 marked green army uniforms) into Crimea and providing weap- courage other countries, such as Belarus, from trying anything
ons and military support to separatist irregular forces; the threat similar; and to stoke nationalist and anti-Western sentiment at
of “escalating to de-escalate”, even including limited use of nuc- home. The effort has not been without cost. Sanctions have hurt.
learweapons. All thisdissuaded the Westfrom even contemplat- Making Crimea a viable entity will take time and lots of money.
ing a military response ofany kind. Whenever the sale of defen- Most important of all, NATO has rediscovered some of its sense
sive weapons to Ukraine was mooted in Washington, Mr Putin of purpose. But neither Mr Putin nor any likely successor would
threatened to expand and intensify a war in which he claimed hesitate to apply the same hybrid-warfare techniques in the fu-
not to be a participant. ture should the need arise.
Russia’s objective is not to “win” a war in Ukraine but to re- China’s grey-zone campaign to assert uncontested control
verse the country’s attempt to move out of Russia’s orbit; to dis- over the South China Sea and jurisdiction over disputed islands 1

House to house

Much of the fighting in future wars is likely to take place in cities
DEEP IN THE southern Negev desert there is a veillance and reconnaissance platforms.
small town called Baladia, with a main Quadcopter drones that can be bought from
square, five mosques, cafés, a hospital, Amazon can send back live video of enemy
multi-storey blocks of flats, a kasbah and a positions. Commercially available unmanned
cemetery. Oddly, it also has a number of ground vehicles can put improvised explosive
well-constructed tunnels. The only people devices in place.
milling around in its streets are Israeli De- Yet Western military forces should still
fence Force (IDF) soldiers. Baladia, the Arab enjoy a significant technological edge. They
word for city, is part of the Tze’elim army will have a huge range of kit, including tiny
base. It has been built to provide a realistic bird- or insect-like unmanned aerial vehicles
training ground for the next time the IDF is that can hover outside buildings or find their
required to go into Gaza to destroy Hamas way in. Unmanned ground vehicles can
missile launchers. reduce the risk of resupplying troops in
Baladia is used not just by the IDF but contested areas and provide medical evacua-
by soldiers from other parts of the world too, tion for injured soldiers, and some of them
including United Nations peacekeepers. Their will carry weapons. Worn-out or broken parts
interest reflects a growing, albeit reluctant, can be replaced near the front line thanks to
acceptance among Western armies that 3Dprinting. A new generation of military
future fights are most likely to take place in vehicles will benefit from advances in solar
cities. Megacities with populations of more energy and battery storage.
than 10m are springing up across Africa and Akey requirement will be for both
Asia. They are often ringed by closely packed Dry run in Baladia direct and indirect fire to be highly dis-
slums controlled by neighbourhood gangs. criminating. As General Milley says, “we can’t
Poor governance, high unemployment and Milley, the head of the US Army, puts it, “it go in there and just slaughter people.” Part
criminality make them fertile territory for took the infantry and the armour and the of the solution will be surveillance drones,
violent extremism. special operations commandos to go into along with more accurate small munitions.
It is hardly surprising that non-state that city, house by house, block by block, The Pentagon’s DARPA research agency has
adversaries of the West and its allies should room by room…and it’s taken quite a while to come up with a “smart bullet” which cannot
seek asymmetric advantage by taking the do it, and at high cost.” He thinks that his be dodged.
fight into cities. Air power and precision- force should now focus less on fighting in Commanders will also rely on artificial
guided munitions lose some of their effec- traditional environments such as woodland intelligence to analyse the vast amounts of
tiveness in urban warfare because their and desert and more on urban warfare. data at their disposal almost instantly. Ben
targets can hide easily and have no scruples To that end, he advocates smaller but Barry of the International Institute for
about using a densely packed civilian pop- well-armoured tanks that can negotiate city Strategic Studies says that big-data analytics
ulation as a shield. streets, and helicopters with a narrower rotor will be able to provide a picture of the mood,
Valuable lessons have been learned span that can fly between buildings. At the morale and concerns of both combatants and
from the battle for Sadr City, a large suburb of organisational level, that means operating civilians, which he thinks is at least as impor-
Baghdad, in 2008, Israel going into Gaza in with smaller, more compartmentalised tant as the military side.
2014 and the defeat of Islamic State (IS) in fighting units with far more devolved deci- For all the advances that new technol-
Mosul last year. Even with close air support, sion-making powers. ogies can offer, General Milley says it is a
aerial surveillance and precision weapons General Milley and other military fantasy to think that wars can now be won
supplied by Western allies, Iraqi security professionals are well aware that many of the without blood and sacrifice: “After the shock
forces in Mosul (not to mention a civilian emerging technologies will also be available and awe comes the march and fight…to
population held hostage by IS) took a terrible to their adversaries. Today’s smartphones impose your political will on the enemy
battering to defeat just a few thousand provide encrypted communications that can requires you…to destroy that enemy up close
well-prepared insurgents. As General Mark befuddle Western forces’ intelligence, sur- with ground forces.”

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