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        from the disease-induced mortality that prevents  supplementary materials). Disease-induced mor-  treatment groups. Thus, by generating stron-
        onward pathogen transmission and thus reduces  tality rates were inferred to scale linearly with  ger host protection during primary infection
        pathogen fitness to zero. Second, we observed  conjunctivitis severity, which predicts mortality  (Fig. 1), high-virulence strains effectively exclude
        the greatest reduction in pathogen load and clin-  risk in the wild (7); susceptibility to infection was  low-virulence strains from future infections of
        ical signs and, thus, the strongest protection  inferred from the presence of a pathogen load  that host.
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        against reinfection in hosts previously exposed to  above 10 copies in the conjunctiva at any post-  We next asked how the observed relationship
        higher-virulence strains (Fig. 1 and Tables 1 and  inoculation qPCR sampling point. As expected,  between virulence and protection against re-
        2). Primary exposure to a homologous strain also  disease-induced mortality and susceptibility in-  infection alters the optimal or evolutionarily
        generated strong host protection (Fig. 1), suggest-  creased with the virulence of the currently infecting  stable level of virulence in a pathogen population
        ing that adaptive immune responses, either alone  strain (Fig. 2 and tables S1 and S2). Thus, virulent  (Fig. 3). We used a two-strain SIRS (susceptible-
        or in combination with innate priming mecha-  strains are better able to successfully infect hosts  infected-recovered-susceptible) model with the
        nisms (14), likely underlie the detected incom-  but also cause higher disease-induced mortality
        plete protection against reinfection (see also  than less virulent strains. However, the host im-  0.15
        fig. S1).                           mune status generated by primary treatment
          We used the empirical responses to secondary  strongly modifies the degree of disease-induced
        inoculation to fit two key pathogen-associated  mortality and susceptibility for all strains. Hosts  (days −1 )  0.10
        traits, disease-induced mortality and suscepti-  with prior exposure to high-virulence strains
                                                                                 Mortality rate  ν  0.05
        bility, as continuous functions of the virulence  (Fig. 2, red lines) had the lowest disease-induced
        of both the primary and secondary strains (see  mortality and susceptibility among all primary


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                                                                                   0.00
          Increasing immune protection  Maximum total lesion score per individual  5 4 3 2  η Susceptibility  1.0  1  2  3  Primary exposure:  5  Downloaded from
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                                                                                   0.8
                                                                                   0.6


                                                                                                      Low virulence strain
                                                                                                      Mid virulence strain
                                                                                   0.2
                                                                                                      High virulence strain
                 0 1                                                               0.4                No previous exposure  http://science.sciencemag.org/
                                                                                   0.0
                         No previous   Lower virulence   Homologous  Higher virulence  Negative control
                          exposure         Previous exposure                    Fig. 2. Model parameters as functions of  5
                                                                                                         4
                                                                                                   3
                                                                                       1
                                                                                             2
                                                                                          Virulence of second strain   ε 2
                 7
          Increasing immune protection  Maximum log10 pathogen load per individual  5 4 3 2  pathogen virulence, fit to empirical data.  on March 1, 2018
                 6
                                                                                Higher virulence of the currently infecting (i.e.,
                                                                                secondary) strain is associated with higher host
                                                                                mortality (A) and host susceptibility (B), but
                                                                                host prior exposure (colored lines) reduces
                                                                                disease-associated mortality and susceptibility.
                                                                                Prior exposure to a high-virulence strain provides
                 1
                                                                                lowest host mortality and susceptibility.The
                                                                                effect of virulence of the primary strain was fit as
                 0
                                                                                a continuous function, but to visualize effects,
                         No previous   Lower virulence   Homologous  Higher virulence  Negative control   the most protection and thus results in the
                        exposure (n=30)   (n=29)   (n=25)   (n=27)   (n=9)      lines and points show three categories of primary
                                                                                strain virulence: low (blue), intermediate (pur-
                                           Previous exposure
                                                                                ple), or high (red). Shading around lines denotes
        Fig. 1. Lesion scores and pathogen loads for different exposure treatments. Clinical signs of  bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals
        conjunctivitis (A), which predict mortality in the wild, and conjunctival pathogen loads (B) in hosts with  incorporating error in virulence estimates. Circles
        no previous exposure (positive controls) or previous exposure to M. gallisepticum strains that  and triangles represent data from experiments one
        either were homologous or had different levels of virulence. Negative controls received sterile medium  and two, respectively. Mortality rates (A) were
        for both exposures. Host protection was strongest when the primary exposure strain was of higher  inferred to scale linearly with conjunctival lesion
        virulence than the secondary strain, indicating an effect of strain virulence separate from strain  scores; susceptibility (B) was fit to binomial
        homology effects. Box plots show the maximum observed lesion score (on a scale of 0 to 3 per eye,  infection status (yes or no) inferred from con-
        summed within sampling data for a maximum score of 6) or the conjunctival pathogen load for  junctival pathogen presence. Because distinct
        each of 120 individuals from six postexposure measurements. The levels of virulence of the previous-  strains were used in each experiment (Tables
        exposure strains are grouped categorically here for clarity (differences among treatment groups  1 and 2), lines show the function averaged for the
        were analyzed by the Kruskal-Wallis test; eye score, H = 68.16, df = 4, P < 0.0001; pathogen load,  two experimental strains in each virulence
        H = 76.80, df = 4, P < 0.0001), but virulence was treated as a continuous variable in the model and  category (e.g., low virulence). See fig. S4 for
        analysis. n, number of individuals.                                     functions and data separated by experiment.
        Fleming-Davies et al., Science 359, 1030–1033 (2018)  2 March 2018                                  2of4
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