Page 43 - The Economist20171214

The Economist December 16th 2017 Middle East and Africa 43
2 tencies in his statements (Mr Zuma had NATO, and Egypt has been a close Ameri-
blamedatypingerror).Inresponse,theop- can ally since the 1970s. But, like many of
position Democratic Alliance (DA)saidit theirneighbours, they are frustrated by the
wouldfileacriminalcomplaintforperjury absence of American leadership in the
against Mr Zuma (but like the mountain of Middle East. Apart from fighting the jiha-
other such complaints filed by the DA, this dists of Islamic State, President Donald
is unlikely to go anywhere fornow). Trump shows little interest in Syria. So Tur-
Mr Zuma’s latest defeats provide even key has pivoted towards the new power in
more reasons for his ANC comrades to the region. Once a staunch opponent of
push him aside when the ruling party the Syrian regime, Mr Erdogan now ac-
meets near Johannesburg to elect new cepts that Mr Assad will remain in power.
leaders this weekend. Mr Zuma will step HeisalsofuriousaboutAmericansupport,
down after two terms as party boss (his started under Barack Obama, for Kurdish
term as South Africa’s president ends in fighters in Syria, who have ties to militants
2019 after a national election). He has in his own country. Egypt, always a nettle-
backed his ex-wife, Nkosazana Dlamini- some partner for America, knows Russia
Zuma, to succeed him as party leader and will not punish it for persecuting dissi-
its presidential candidate in 2019, perhaps dents and democrats, as America did in
hopingthatshewillshieldhimfromprose- August when it cut some aid.
cution. Those who think South Africa has LatelyRussia haseven made forays into This is my winning face
had enough Zumas for now will probably the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Though it is
back the frontrunner in this leadership part of the peacemaking “quartet”, it has is privately seething at Russia’s refusal to
race: MrRamaphosa. 7 been the least-active member. Last year, restrain Iranian militias in Syria. Egypt en-
however, Mr Putin offered to host a round joysover$1bn in annual aid from America.
of talks. In Ankara he damned Mr Trump’s But ifit allows Russian pilots to roam its air
Vladimir Putin’s victory lap decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s bases, it risks losing access to advanced
Mission capital. The issue has no strategic impor- American weapons and intelligence.
Nor is Russia the only state looking to
tance to him. Russia already has close ties
accomplished with Israel; the stateless Palestinians offer fill the void left by America. Last month
Emmanuel Macron, the French president,
nothing. But for Mr Putin, it was another
chance to indict America. helped defuse a political crisis in Lebanon,
Mr Putin may have a domestic audi- and he took a stand against Mr Trump’s Je-
CAIRO AND MOSCOW rusalem decision. Muhammad bin Sal-
Russia’s actions in the Middle Eastmay ence in mind. Russians admire the presi- man, the Saudi crown prince, is flexing his
be aimed ata domesticaudience dent’s assertive foreign policy. The Middle
East has been a central stage for him. But muscles in Yemen and beyond. Mr Putin’s
VEN some of Bashar al-Assad’s staun- the Syrian warhas generated little enthusi- Mediterranean jaunt may help him at
Echest opponents cringed at the snub. asm at home. Most Russians would prefer home, where he faces no real challengers.
On December 11th Vladimir Putin made a to see itwrapped up. While in Syria, MrPu- But the Middle East is gettingcrowded. 7
surprise visit to Khmeimim airbase in Syr- tin said he would begin withdrawing
ia, from where the Russian air force troops. The “mission accomplished” mo-
launched a bombing campaign against ment could be seen as an opening salvo in Tunisia’s economy
Syrian rebels in 2015. Two years later, most his campaign for re-election. His victory
of Mr Putin’s aims have been achieved: next spring is not in doubt, but the Kremlin Labour pains
Russia’s military bases in the Middle East worries that turnout might be low.
are secure; Western attemptsto isolate Rus- With Russia’s economy still sputtering,
sia have failed; and Mr Assad remains Syr- the Middle East also offers a lucrative mar-
ia’s president, halting what the Kremlin ket. Rosneft, a state-run oil giant, is invest- TATAOUINE
sees as an American-backed wave of re- ing more than $1bn in infrastructure in Tunisia’s Nobel prize-winning trade
gime change. But when Mr Assad tried to Iraqi Kurdistan. The nuclear contract in unions are holding the countryback
join a photo-op, a Russian officer grabbed Egypt is one of several across the region;
him by the arm. The base might be on Syri- both Jordan and Turkey have also signed ESIDENTS of Tataouine, on the edge of
an soil, but it is Russia’s turf and Mr Putin up with Russia to build plants. The Syria Rthe Sahara, thinkitoughtto be a boom-
would lead the victory lap. campaign was a demonstration ofRussian town. The dusty city is close to Tunisia’s oil
From Syria Mr Putin flew to Egypt for military kit, and perhaps a blueprint forfu- and gas reserves. But firms do most of their
talks with its president, Abdel-Fattah al- ture operationselsewhere. The ruthless de- recruiting elsewhere and send their profits
Sisi. Theyagreed to resume flightsbetween ployment of modern air power proved an away. The local unemployment rate is
theircountries, which were cutoffafter the efficient means of changing facts on the more than twice the national average of
bombing ofa Russian airliner over Sinai in ground. Pseudo-private military compa- 13%.InApriljob-seekingprotestersshutthe
2015. They also moved forward on a $21bn nies used as assault forces helped keep main oil pipeline and briefly halted work
deal for Russia to build a nuclear power Russian casualties out ofthe public eye. on Nawara, a biggasfield. YoussefChahed,
plant on Egypt’s northern coast. In recent Yet talk of Russia as the new regional the prime minister, wasbooed offthe stage
weeks they have discussed letting Russian superpower is overblown. For one thing, at a town-hall meeting. So the Tunisian
military jets use Egyptian airstrips. Mr Pu- Syria ishardlya resoundingvictory: MrAs- General Labour Union (UGTT), the coun-
tin ended the day in Turkey, where Recep sad is the enfeebled leader of a ruined try’s largest, stepped in to mediate. In June
Tayyip Erdogan, his Turkish counterpart, country. So far Russia has tried to play all it announced a deal: the state would hire
announced progress on a deal to purchase sides, workingclosely with Iran, while cul- another3,000 workers from the region.
a Russian air-defence system. tivating deeper ties with its arch-rival, Sau- The concession ended the protests. But
Much ofthiswould have been unthink- di Arabia. These relationships will inevita- it was bad policy. The state oil company is
able a fewyearsago. Turkeyisa member of bly come into conflict. Israel, for example, already an inefficient mess. Over the past 1