Page 46 - The Economist20171214

46 Europe The Economist December 16th 2017
2 charge of rebellion and pre-trial detention France’s activist foreign policy Macron represents them abroad, far more
smack of overkill by a conservative but in- than support his efforts to reform the econ-
dependent judiciary. Government officials Hop, skip and omy at home.
have hinted that they would prefer to see Does his activism amount to some-
all candidates free to campaign. jump thing substantial? Other new presidents
The heavy-handedness of the Spanish showed similar rushes of interest in world
state has once again come to Mr Puigde- affairs, before disappointmentsetin. Nicol-
PARIS
mont’s rescue politically. At the start of the Whatto make ofEmmanuel Macron’s as Sarkozy, early in his term, proposed a
campaign, the separatist parties showed freneticinternational efforts “union for the Mediterranean” and put
signs of moderation. Some of Esquerra’s himself forward as a Middle Eastern
leaders say they would concentrate on go- E IS the Duracell Bunny of diplomacy. peacemaker. Neither effort bore fruit. He
verning while leaving independence for HThis month Emmanuel Macron and François Hollande readily used mili-
the long term. But Mr Puigdemont is rapid- hopped back from a three-day trip to west tary force, for example in bombing Libya.
ly turning the election into a referendum Africa, then bounded through visits to Al- In Syria, France first opposed the govern-
“to restore the legitimate government” dis- geriaandQatar.InParishereceivedIsrael’s ment of Bashar al-Assad, but then failed to
lodged by Article 155. His Catalan Demo- prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, to act decisively. Mr Macron calls actions in
cratic Party is tarnished by allegations of discuss peace prospects for the Middle both those countries “cruel failures”.
past corruption. Esquerra was poised to East. Then the French president hosted a Two elements appear different today.
outpoll it easily. But Mr Puigdemont chose climate jamboree on December 12th, two One is context. Mr Macron stands on a re-
his own non-party list, and his emotional years after the Paris deal (see page 53). A markably empty field, alone as a Western
campaign has closed the gap. daylater,moresummitry:heledagroup of leader with some diplomatic and military
Esquerra is hobbled by Mr Junqueras’s “G5”Africanleadersintalksonfighting ter- cloutwho seeksa biggerinternational role.
imprisonment. “They are suffering a vacu- rorists in the Sahel and beyond. Britain’s preoccupation with Brexit has di-
umofleadershipwhilePuigdemontiscon- Mr Macron was a relative newcomer to minished itsinfluence. German leaders are
ducting a presidential campaign,” says foreign policy when he became president also distracted and anyway enjoy limited
Oriol Bartomeus, a political scientist at the in May, but his appetite for it is large. He influence beyond Europe. “France is filling
Autonomous University of Barcelona. Mr says, unapologetically, that France must be a vacuum,” says François Heisbourg, a se-
Puigdemont might inject further drama by “ambitious” in the wider world and be- curity analyst in Paris.
appearinginCataloniabeforethevoteand come “a great power again”. His efforts are The second factorishispersonality. “He
gettinghimselfarrested. attimesmostlytheatrical, such aswhen he isa talented, charmingopportunist, able to
Accordingto MrBartomeus, an election hostedDonald Trump forBastilleDaycele- size up people and build personal rela-
so soon after the October events has brationsin July. Buthe talkswith a sense of tions,” argues Adam Plowright, a presiden-
served to harden positions. If the opinion mission, arguing that liberal, democratic tial biographer. He points to Mr Macron’s
pollsare right, onlya fewvoterswill desert European countries are duty-bound to op- skilful extraction last month ofSaad Hariri
the independence camp. But Ciudadanos pose authoritarians and address complex from Saudi Arabia, where Lebanon’s
and the other constitutionalist parties global problems together, even ifold allies, leader was, in effect, being held captive by
hope that some Catalans who are against notably America under Mr Trump, opt for his hosts. The intervention let the Saudis
independence but who used to stay away isolationism. save face. Mr Macron may now feel em-
will vote this time, boosting turnout be- Such activity appeals to many French boldened to try more such mediation.
yond the 75% who cast ballots in 2015. voters, after years of national economic France has capital to spend, especially
Whatever the outcome, Catalonia will decline matched by dwindling interna- in the Middle East, argues Emile Hokayem
see a fragmented parliament in which tional clout. A poll this month suggested of the International Institute for Strategic
forming a government will take weeks of that 73% of respondents like the way Mr Studies. MrMacron is vocal, ready to break
haggling and possibly require yet another with old practice (for example in his gam-
election. Ifthe polls are right, the separatist bitin offeringto visitIran) and can drawon
blockmayfallshortoftheslendermajority France’s historic ties in the region. But Mr
of seats it obtained in 2015. In that case the Hokayem warns against exaggerated ex-
Catalan affiliate of Podemos, a left-wing pectations ofthe sort that were (briefly) as-
party, may hold the key to a governing co- sociated with MrSarkozy.
alition. Its leader, Xaiver Domènech, says Afterall, France’smilitarymighthasnot
he would not put Mr Puigdemont, nor Ms increased under Mr Macron. “He can start
Arrimadas, in office. discussions, but he realises that the Ameri-
Barring a clear defeat for separatism on cans have the muscle,” says Mr Hokayem.
December21st,thereareonlytwowaysout France can help in crisis management or
of the Catalan quagmire. One is an agreed de-escalating problems, as with Mr Hariri,
independence referendum, which is con- but Mr Macron must ultimately recognise
stitutionally difficult, and which Mr Rajoy that “what matters is gettingAmericans on
and Spanish opinion oppose. The other in- board,” he suggests.
volves wider reforms, which might ad- Mr Macron’s most important role,
dress Catalan grievances over money and therefore, is probably as Europe’s only
powers;MrRajoyhasgingerlyagreedtoex- leader to enjoy a good relationship with
amine these issues after the election. But MrTrump. The two presidentspublicly dis-
Catalonia’s drama is changing Spanish agree on matters ofsubstance, for example
politics. Ciudadanos, which to many has over climate change or America’s recogni-
taken on the mantle of Spanish national- tion of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. But
ism, is rising in the opinion polls—partly at they click at a personal level, speaking fre-
the expense of Mr Rajoy’s conservative quently, bonding over mutual experiences
People’s Party. “It’s not going to be easy,” as political outsiders who recently
admits the minister. 7 Greetings, mortals stormed to high office. That should help. 7