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Saturday 26 auguSt 2017
Harvey bears down on Texas coast Harvey’s perfect storm recipe:

Warm water, calm air up high

Continued from front kilometers) from the pro- side RV park that looked
jected landfall.It may also vulnerable, John Bellah By SETH BORENSTEIN
After Abbott urged more spawn tornadoes. Even af- drove up in his pickup to AP Science Writer
people to flee, Houston ter weakening, the system have a look at an RV he WASHINGTON (AP) — Hurricane Harvey is following the
authorities told people might spin out into the Gulf had been told was for sale. perfect recipe to be a monster storm, meteorologists
to remain in their homes and regain strength before He and his wife planned to say.
and recommended no hitting Houston a second ride out Harvey. Warm water. Check. Calm air at 40,000 feet high.
widespread evacuations. time Wednesday as a trop- “This is just going to blow Check. Slow speed to dump maximum rain. Check.
Mayor Sylvester Turner on ical storm, forecasters said. through,” said Bellah, 72, University of Miami senior hurricane researcher Brian
Friday tweeted “please By mid-afternoon, the who said he had been McNoldy said Harvey combines the worst attributes of
think twice before trying to storm was centered about through Hurricane Rita in nasty recent Texas storms:
leave Houston en masse.” 60 miles (96 kilometers) 2005 and Carla in 1961. He The devastating storm surge of Hurricane Ike in 2008;
the winds of Category 4 Hurricane Brett in 1999 and
days upon days of heavy rain of Tropical Storm Allison
in 2001.
Rainfall is forecast to be as high as 35 inches through
next Wednesday in some areas. Deadly storm surge
— the push inwards of abnormally high ocean water
above regular tides — could reach 12 feet, the Nation-
al Hurricane Center warned, calling Harvey life-threat-
ening. Harvey’s forecast path is the type that keeps it
stronger longer with devastating rain and storm-force
wind lasting for several days, not hours.
“It’s a very dangerous storm,” National Weather Ser-
vice Director Louis Uccellini told The Associated Press.
“It does have all the ingredients it needs to intensify.
And we’re seeing that intensification occur quite rap-
idly.”
WARM WATER
Warm water is the fuel for hurricanes. It’s where storms
get their energy. Water needs to be about 79 degrees
(26 Celsius) or higher to sustain a hurricane, McNoldy
said. Harvey is over part of the Gulf of Mexico where
the water is about 87 degrees or 2 degrees above nor-
mal for this time of year, said Jeff Masters, a former hur-
ricane hunter meteorologist and meteorology director
A woman is helped to a bus as she and other are evacuated as the outer bands of Hurricane
Harvey begin to make landfall, Friday, Aug. 25, 2017, in Corpus Christi, Texas. Harvey intensified of Weather Underground.
into a hurricane Thursday and steered for the Texas coast with the potential for up to 3 feet of rain, A crucial factor is something called ocean heat con-
125 mph winds and 12-foot storm surges in what could be the fiercest hurricane to hit the United tent. It’s not just how warm the surface water is but how
States in almost a dozen years. deep it goes. And Harvey is over an area where warm
(AP Photo/Eric Gay) enough water goes about 330 feet (100 meters) deep,
which is a very large amount of heat content, McNoldy
The spokesman of emer- southeast of Corpus Christi, described those storms as said.
gency operations in Har- moving 10 mph (17 kph) to “much worse.” “It can sit there and spin and have plenty of warm wa-
ris County was even more the northwest. State officials said they had ter to work with,” McNoldy said.
direct, tweeting: “LOCAL All seven Texas counties no count on how many WEAK WINDS
LEADERS KNOW BEST.” on the coast from Corpus people actually left their If winds at 40,000 feet high are strong in the wrong di-
At a convenience store Christi to the western end homes. rection it can decapitate a hurricane. Strong winds
in Houston’s Meyerland of Galveston Island or- The storm posed the first high up remove the heat and moisture that hurricanes
neighborhood, at least 12 dered mandatory evacu- major emergency man- need near their center and also distort the shape.
cars lined up for fuel. Brent ations from low-lying areas. agement test of President But the wind up there is weak so Harvey “is free to go
Borgstedte said this was Four counties ordered full Donald Trump’s adminis- nuts basically,” McNoldy said.
the fourth gas station he evacuations and warned tration. PERFECT PATH
had visited to try to fill up his there was no guarantee of The White House said Trump Before it hits the Texas coast, Harvey is projected to
son’s car. The 55-year-old rescue for people staying was closely monitoring the go over an even deeper and warmer eddy to super-
insurance agent shrugged behind. hurricane and planned to charge it a bit more, just like what happened to Hur-
off Harvey’s risks. Voluntary evacuations travel to Texas early next ricane Katrina in 2005, but not quite as bad, Masters
“I don’t think anybody is have been urged for Cor- week to view recovery ef- said.
really that worried about pus Christi and for the Bo- forts. The president was If that’s not bad enough, there’s a good chance that
it. I’ve lived here my whole livar Peninsula, a sand spit expected to receive brief- after Harvey hits it will follow a track so close to the coast
life,” he said. “I’ve been near Galveston where ings during the weekend and not so much inland that it will essentially keep a
through several hurri- many homes were washed at Camp David. toe in the water. The storm could be big enough that
canes.” away by the storm surge of Trump’s homeland security not all of it is over land. Because of that, the National
Scientists warned that Har- Hurricane Ike in 2008. and counterterrorism ad- Hurricane Center forecasts that it will remain at least
vey could become pow- People in the town of viser, Tom Bossert, said the tropical storm strength — and 40 mph winds — through
erful enough to swamp Port Lavaca, population administration was “bring- Tuesday, maybe into Wednesday.
counties more than 100 12,200, appeared to heed ing together the firepower SLOW SPEED
miles (161 kilometers) in- the danger. The commu- of the federal government Because it looks like Harvey will be meandering at
land and stir up danger- nity northeast of Corpus to assist the state and local around 10 mph and then will likely stall out over the
ous surf as far away as Ala- Christi was a ghost town governments, but the state coast or just a bit inland, that means it will stay over one
bama and the Florida Pan- Friday, with every business and local governments are place and keep raining, Masters said. Day in, day out
handle, 700 miles (1,126 boarded up. But at a bay- in the lead here.”q until the middle of next week.q