Page 25 - Aruba Today

BUSINESS A25
Tuesday 26 January 2016

Exxon says oil and gas will still dominate energy in 2040

2014 to 2040, led by devel- ones, notably India and University called the Exxon
oping nations in Asia, Latin countries in Latin America. emissions forecast “pretty
America and the Middle Exxon sees a slightly smaller typical of fossil-fuel indus-
East. The International En- increase in carbon emis- try and government fore-
ergy Agency recently fore- sions than it forecast in De- casts,” which he said fail to
cast a one-third increase cember 2014 after adjust- consider the implications of
by 2040. ing for the earlier study’s meeting climate-change
— Oil use will grow 25 per- different time period; 2010 goals. At Paris, nearly 200
cent in that period, al- to 2040. Technology and nations vowed to limit glob-
though it will account for climate-change policies al warming below 2 de-
a slightly smaller share of are among the reasons. grees Celsius (3.6 degrees
overall energy, and use Energy researcher Jona- Fahrenheit) compared with
of natural gas will jump 56 than Koomey of Stanford pre-industrial levels.q
percent.
This photo shows an Exxon sign at a mini-mart in Dormont, Pa. The — Together, oil and gas
way oil giant Exxon Mobil sees it, the global energy landscape will account for 57 percent
won’t be radically different in 2040 than it is today, with oil and of the world’s energy, up
gas remaining king of the energy supply. from 56 percent in 2014.
— Coal’s share will slide
(AP Photo/Nick Ut) from will slip to 20 percent
from 26 percent.
DAVID KOENIG outlook in December 2014. —Nuclear and biomass
AP Business Writer Oil prices have plunged will each account for 8
DALLAS (AP) — The way lower for longer than any- percent of energy in 2040,
oil giant Exxon Mobil sees one expected. Internation- hydro 3 percent, and oth-
it, the global energy land- al sanctions that kept Iran er renewables 4 percent.
scape won’t be radically largely out of the world oil Exxon thinks alternative
different in 2040 than it is market were lifted. And fuels will become a staple
today. international negotiators in power generation but
Oil and gas will remain meeting in Paris reached grow more slowly in trans-
king, accounting for an an unprecedented agree- portation because of tech-
even slightly larger share ment to reduce the growth nology and cost issues.
of the energy supply. Coal in emissions linked to cli- — Carbon emissions will rise
will fall behind natural gas mate change. about 11 percent between
to become the third-larg- Yet Exxon’s new forecast is 2014 and 2040. Emissions
est source of energy. strikingly similar to the old will fall 21 percent in in-
Exxon forecasts that one. Its main predictions: dustrialized nations but rise
emerging renewables such — Global energy demand 32 percent in developing
as solar and wind power will rise 25 percent from
will triple but remain small
— just 4 percent of the
world’s energy. And car-
bon emissions will continue
rising until around 2030,
when cuts in industrialized
nations gain traction lead
an overall reduction.
Those are some of the high-
lights in the long-range out-
look that Exxon Mobil Corp.
released Monday. It is not
likely to win an enthusias-
tic response from environ-
mentalists, including some
of the company’s dissident
shareholders, who want a
quicker pivot away from
oil, gas and coal and fast-
er progress to bring down
carbon emissions.
Exxon officials say it is a dis-
passionate forecast, not a
political document.
“Exxon Mobil uses the
outlook to develop busi-
ness strategies that under-
pin our billion-dollar invest-
ment decisions,” William
Colton, the oil giant’s chief
strategist, said in an inter-
view. “We have every in-
centive to get it right.”
A great deal has happened
since Exxon’s last long-term