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SCIENCETuesday 27 October 2015

An intolerable unimaginable heat forecast for Persian Gulf

SETH BORENSTEIN In this June 10, 2010 file photo, an Asian laborer avoids the direct sun by working behind a wooden sign, as he works on a manhole
AP Science Writer alongside of an under construction road in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
WASHINGTON (AP) — If
carbon dioxide emissions Associated Press
continue at their current
pace, by the end of centu- jected if heat-trapping gas thor Jeremy Pal of Loyola deaths during the annual people in these regions
ry parts of the Persian Gulf emissions continue to rise at Marymount University hajj pilgrimage, Eltahir said. will likely need to find other
will sometimes be just too current rates, it will happen It would still be rare, and “Some of the scariest pros- places to live.”
hot for the human body to every decade or so by the cities such as Abu Dhabi, pects from a changing Said Dr. Howard Frumkin,
tolerate, a new study says. end of the century, accord- Dubai and Doha wouldn’t clime involve conditions dean of the University of
How hot? The heat index ing to the study published quite be uninhabitable, completely outside the Washington school of pub-
— which combines heat Monday in the journal Na- thanks to air conditioning. range of human experi- lic health, who wasn’t part
and humidity — may hit ture Climate Change. But for people living and ence,” Carnegie Institute of the research: “When the
165 to 170 degrees (74 to This would be the type working outside or those for Science climate re- ambient temperatures are
77 Celsius) for at least six of heat that would make with no air conditioning, it searcher Chris Field, extremely high,
hours, according to numer- deadly heat wave in Eu- would be intolerable, said who wasn’t part of the as projected in this paper,
ous computer simulations rope in 2003 that killed Eltahir and Pal. study, wrote in an email. then exposed people can
in the new study. more than 70,000 people While Mecca won’t be “If we don’t limit climate and do die. The implication
That’s so hot that the hu- “look like a refreshing day quite as hot, the heat change to avoid extreme s of this paper for the Gulf
man body can’t get rid of or event,” said study co-au- will likely still cause many heat or mugginess, the region are frightening.”q
heat.

The elderly and ill are
hurt most by current heart
waves, but the future is ex-
pected to be so hot that
healthy, fit people would
be endangered, health
experts say.
“You can go to a wet sau-
na and put the tempera-
ture up to 35 (Celsius or 95
degrees Fahrenheit) or so.
You can bear it for a while,
now think of that at an ex-
tended exposure” of six or
more hours,
said study co-author Elfatih
Eltahir, an MIT environmen-
tal engineering professor.
While humans have been
around, Earth has not seen
that type of prolonged,
oppressive combination of
heat and humidity, Eltahir
said. But with the unique
geography and climate
of the Persian Gulf and
increased warming pro-