Page 33 - Banking Finance May 2020

ARTICLE

EIU Projection

India’s growth may be slashed
to 2.1% but given the
projection, looks like India will
show the highest rate of GDP
growth among G20 countries.
Also, as per EIU, India will be
among top three countries in
G20, along with China and
Indonesia that shall avoid
recession this year.

Since, there might be trade disturbance between China and
global market. India can take this situation as an export
opportunity window to expand its exports. It is difficult to
comprehend this opportunity, given India-China trade
relations. However, over the last 5 years, there is slight
decrease in India’s dependency on China.

Industries to be Benefitted

Due to Lockdown, there is an upside in the industries of
Digital Media, Consumer staples and Telecom. Further, the
Consumer sentiments are depicting that there shall be spurt
in essentials, savings, health & wellness, at-home
entertainment, and education over the period of next 6
months.

The resistance of Indian Economy
Looking at the past crises, Indian economy has shown
resilience through V shaped recoveries.
Asian Financial Crises (1997)
Agricultural Crises (2002-03)
India is now attempting to develop ecosystem in India. This Global Financial Crises (2007-08)
might be the perfect time promote and accelerate “Make Demonetization (2016-17)
in India”. Given India has lower labour cost as compared to
China, complete ecosystem should be developed to 2008 Recession can act as a starting point to recover from
manufacture for global market. this fatal economic blow.

BANKING FINANCE | MAY | 2020 | 33