Page 10 - AASBO Winter 2019.indd

LEGISLATIVE WORKSHOP

BY DON HARRIS

JLBC Economist Expects a Good Year Ahead

Steve Schimpp has been crunching numbers at the Joint “At least in short term the strong economy has slowed
Legislative Budget Committee for 24 years, and he con dently Medicaid growth, and there is no recession expected through
labels the outlook for upcoming scal 2020 as “a good news the next few years,” Schimpp said.
year.” Despite Schimpp’s rosy economic outlook for Arizona,
Schimpp, JLBC Deputy Director, told attendees at the 2018 there is what he called “a divergence of national forecasts.” For
Legislative Workshop that he sees strong economic growth that example, the chairman of the Federal Reserve declared the
has improved the state’s scal condition. e General Fund nation’s economy is in “a remarkably period” that pairs “steady
is forecast to have a structural balance of plus $200 million low in ation and very low unemployment.”
unencumbered. In addition, he expects a one-time surplus of But, said Schimpp, in a poll of 51 national economic
$900 million in scal 2020. forecasters, 66 percent predict a recession by the end of FY
“So, how did we end up with $1 billion above forecast?” 2020.
Schimpp asked. ere are options for spending the one-time money totaling
Forecast assumptions predict continued strong revenue $1 billion. Big ticket items, according to Schimpp, include
growth of 6 percent in 2019, and moderate growth of nearly 4
percent in 2020 and beyond, he said. CONTINUED ON PAGE 12

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10 THE EDGE | WINTER 2019