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18 United States
2 its bearer from getting soaked—particular-
ly because America seems unprepared for
the next stage of the fight. A recent report
from Harvard’s Safra Centre for Ethics sug-
gests that to safely and fully reopen, Ameri- daytime use, and visitors must make reser-
ca needs 5m tests per day by early June—six
weeks from now—and 20m by late July.
That figure would let local health authori-
ties swiftly catch and isolate asymptomatic
transmitters whose jobs put them in con-
tact with vulnerable populations—nurs-
ing-home or health-care workers, for in-
stance—or who cannot isolate themselves
(people in jails and prisons). Ashish Jha,
who heads Harvard’s Global Health Insti-
tute, argues that 500,000 tests per day is an
acceptable minimum.
Throughout April the number of daily
tests has averaged around 150,000, with the
share of positive tests staying around 20%.
That suggests America is testing only peo-
ple who are probably infected (in Taiwan,
for instance, one in every 132 tests is posi- tive Order to temporarily suspend
tive), which in turn suggests that many
mild or asymptomatic cases are going un-
detected. America may have 15 to 20 times
more actual infected people than con-
firmed cases. Material shortages and lab-
oratory backlogs, not helped by a lack of co- asylum-seekers postponed, immigration
ordination and sharply increased demand,
have hampered America’s testing capacity.
Mr Trump’s repeated reassurance that any-
one who wants a test can get one seems to
have stopped firms from making tests in
sufficient quantity (everyone assumed
someone else was doing it). Those pro-
blems seem solvable, but only with deci-
sive, concerted federal action.
America also has a shortage of contact-
tracers—people who investigate where
someone caught the disease and who else
he may have infected. Tom Frieden, who
headed the Centres for Disease Control
(cdc) until 2017, believes America needs
300,000. It currently has around 2,200.
Some states and cities have begun training
more, but not nearly enough (Wuhan alone
had 9,000). America also lacks places to
isolate the infected so they do not spread
the virus to their families and neighbours.
Indeed, the federal government’s own
guidelines suggest that before a state
reopens, it should see a declining number
of covid-19 cases and positive tests over 14
days, and have in place a “robust testing
programme”—criteria that none of the re-
opening states satisfies. Yet throughout the
pandemic Mr Trump has played both sides:
appearing onstage nightly with public-
health experts and chastising Georgia’s go-
vernor for reopening too soon, while also
encouraging anti-lockdown protesters on
Twitter; claiming “total” authority while
also saying, “I don’t take responsibility at
all.” He seems to want to reap any public-
health gains from the lockdown while forc-
ing governors to accept culpability for any
economic hardship.
The Economist April 25th 2020
Perhaps the opening southern states Environmental regulation
will suffer no ill effects. Some lifting of re-
strictions make sense—Texas has opened Mercury rising
some state parks, for instance, but only for
vations, wear masks and not gather in
groups of more than five people. South Car-
WASHINGTON, DC
olina’s governor requires shops to admit no The race to dismantle the
more than five people per 1,000 square feet, administrative state continues apace
and follow cdc sanitation practices. Per-
haps the virus will fade in warm weather, or s the middle of a global pandemic of co-
mutate to become less dangerous. But, as Ivid-19, a respiratory illness, a sensible
Mr Frieden says, “it will be a trial-and-error time for America to roll back air-pollution
experiment, and the errors can result in regulations? The White House seems to
lost lives” (see Graphic Detail). think so. On April 16th the Environmental
Should that happen—should Texans Protection Agency (epa) issued a final rec-
and Georgians fall ill and look balefully ommendation that it was no longer “appro-
northward, or blame their Trump-aligned priate and necessary” to regulate the emis-
governors—Mr Trump has pre-emptively sions of mercury and other toxins from
found a scapegoat. On April 20th he an- coal- and oil-fired power plants. Though
nounced, “In light of the attack from the In- existing limits remain in place for now,
visible Enemy...I will be signing an Execu- they could well be challenged in court and
struck down. Excessive exposure to mercu-
immigration into the United States!” In ry in utero produces birth defects and life-
practice this will not change much. With long brain damage in children.
visa-processing at embassies suspended, The mercury move is not an aberration.
the northern and southern borders shut to Two weeks before, on March 31st, as the
non-essential travel and court dates for country was transfixed by covid-19, the epa
and a federal transport agency finalised an-
has already slowed to a trickle. Court chal- other deregulation—this one to substan-
lenges will start before Mr Trump’s signa- tially cut fuel-efficiency standards for fu-
ture on the executive order is dry. ture fleets of cars. If these rules ever come
Keeping immigrants out will not make into force, and there will be legal chal-
the country healthier. Although immi- lenges to them, they would be consequen-
grants comprise 14% of America’s popula- tial. The laxer car rules will, according to
tion, they account for nearly 30% of its doc- the government’s own projections, lead to
tors. Yet the president is arguing in a an additional 923m tonnes of carbon-diox-
different register. He may not be able to ide emissions. Given that the country as a
control the virus, but he has more power to whole emitted 5.4bn tonnes in 2018, the ef-
choose the territory where the election is fect would be considerable.
fought. Natives versus foreigners worked Though the two actions represent a con-
well in the past—why not try it again? 7 tinuation of Donald Trump’s effort to un-
ravel existing environmental regulations
of all kinds, the rush now may be prompted
Half-in, half-out by a more concrete concern: a somewhat
Covid-19 lockdown, at April 22nd 2020 arcane law known as the Congressional Re-
Comprehensive restrictions on business and travel view Act. This allows Congress to revoke re-
cently issued regulations without going
Some restrictions Few to no restrictions through the typically lengthy bureaucratic
Easing of restrictions Started Planned* fuss. Before Mr Trump’s presidency, the
By date rule had been used just once before. But in
April MT May the early days of his administration, the
17 18 20 24 26 27 1 4 8 Republican-led Congress used it to great ef-
FL MN SC GA CO AL AK PA
TX OK MS ID AR RI fect—cancelling Obama-era rules on the
VT TN MI environment, labour and consumer pro-
OH
AK UT ME tection. The administration seems to be
WI VT NH rushing now to inoculate its actions
against future repeal, says Ann Carlson, a
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
professor of environmental law at the Uni-
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI versity of California, Los Angeles.
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE Any new regulations—including re-
peals—must be rigorously costed, or else
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC they risk being overturned in the courts.
OK LA MS AL GA The environmental rules that the Trump
HI TX FL administration is rewriting were signed
just a few years ago. Their costings then
*States that have announced showed social benefits vastly exceeding
Source: Press reports easing. Dates may change the compliance costs. 1