Page 9 - FSUOGM Week 41 2021

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

How Taliban rule will either assure

or doom the TAPI gas pipeline

TAPI looked an unlikely prospect even before the Taliban takeover

AFGHANISTAN THE Taliban takeover in Afghanistan means ground on the pipeline in December 2015, the
that the fate of the Turkmen-led Turkmeni- actual state of the Turkmen stretch of the pipe-
stan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas line still remains shrouded in mystery.
WHAT: pipeline has once again been plunged into the Much of the project’s future was put in ques-
The Taliban takeover of realm of speculation. tion during the Afghan war due to the associated
Afghanistan may not be As things stand, the fortunes of Turkmeni- instability. The emergence of a potentially stable
bad news for TAPI, as stan’s battered economy almost entirely hinge government, even led by the Taliban, may be
the group has previously on gas sales to China. The other customer, Rus- seen as a game changer.
expressed support for the sia, buys just small volumes. TAPI is a crucial
pipeline. element in Ashgabat’s search for badly needed Why the project may work
additional revenues. To everyone’s surprise, in 2018, the Taliban
WHY: When an agreement for the TAPI project expressed their support for the project, prom-
The Taliban will be eager was originally signed in 2015, work on Afghan- ising to help make it a reality in Afghanistan in
to benefit from potentially istan’s segment of the pipeline was scheduled to exchange for jobs. The enthusiasm appears to
lucrative transit start in 2017. By 2019, however, the Ministry remain alive following the Taliban’s re-emer-
revenues. of Mines and Petroleum was announcing that gence, after 20 years, as the ruling force in
construction work on the Afghan stretch would Afghanistan.
WHAT NEXT: get going in earnest in 2020. Afghanistan, under Taliban spokesperson Muhammad Suhail
There are still significant the government that fled the advancing Taliban Shaheen, in an interview with Sky News, stressed
economc hurdles facing amid the US pullout, was looking to earn over that the TAPI pipeline and a proposed rail con-
the project. $400mn in transit duties annually from a func- nection between Turkmenistan and Afghanistan
tioning TAPI pipeline. were “long-term priority projects”.
The pipeline has been designed to provide up The Taliban have also made encouraging
to 33bn cubic metres per year of gas from fields noises as regards the proposed Turkmeni-
in eastern Turkmenistan. Gas flows would go to stan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) high-volt-
Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. The Turkmen age power transmission lines and railways that
pipeline section is expected to cost $1bn, while would run from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan
the whole project is projected to cost $10bn. if all went to plan.
Some estimates show the costs ballooning up to That demonstrates the generally favourable
$22.5bn. Though Turkmenistan formally broke attitude of the Taliban towards Turkmenistan.

Week 41 13•October•2021 www. NEWSBASE .com P9