Page 15 - NorthAmOil Week 44 2020
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NorthAmOil                                 GUEST COMMENT                                         NorthAmOil





































       Will Turkey and Greece fight a





       war over East Mediterranean gas?







       GUEST COMMENT     IN early October the President of the European  is a good place to start.
                         Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, threatened   Two islands, one large, one tiny, prevent
                         Turkey with sanctions if the latter continued to  Turkey’s EEZ from including the northern half
                         take “unilateral action” in the Eastern Mediterra-  of the East Med Basin. The larger, Cyprus, sits
                         nean. The Commission does not move fast and  100 km south of Turkey and interrupts Turkey’s
                         so Turkey’s behaviour between now and the end  ownership of the eastern half of its littoral. With
                         of the year will receive a leisurely review, proba-  Cyprus where it is, Turkey’s EEZ only extends 50
                         bly by March 2021.                   km south of the Turkish coast and then stops.
                           The unilateral actions which prompted the  Cyprus owns everything south of that (subject
                         President’s threat were inspired by four complex  to an argument, discussed below).
                         and interrelated Turkish problems, two of which   The smaller island, the Greek territory of Kas-
                         turn on the very likely presence of large gas  tellorizo, is a minute speck of land 2 km off Tur-
                         reserves in Turkey’s southern littoral. The third  key’s south coast about midway between Cyprus
                         problem is ownership of improbable marine  and Rhodes. A simple view (and the Greek view)
                         resources in the Aegean (well explored, fished  of EEZ definitions would give this small chip of
                         out long ago and of little commercial value),  Greece a large triangular EEZ to its south, and
                         while the last one is not an energy problem at all,  would transfer some 40% of Turkey’s continental
                         but is no less painful for Turkey. All four prob-  shelf to Greek ownership. I call this the Kastello-
                         lems are governed by International Law, and that  rizo Triangle.™

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       Week 44   06•November•2020               www. NEWSBASE .com                                             P15
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