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                                   Source: New Knowledge                115

                 Indeed,  until  all  the  knowledges  converge,  the  lead  time  of  a
              knowledge-based innovation usually does not even begin.


                                            II


              WHAT KNOWLEDGE-BASED INNOVATION
              REQUIRES

                 Its  characteristics  give  knowledge-based  innovation  specific
              requirements. And these requirements differ from those of any other
              kind of innovation.
                 1. In the first place, knowledge-based innovation requires careful
              analysis  of  all  the  necessary  factors,  whether  knowledge  itself,  or
              social, economic, or perceptual factors. The analysis must identify
              what factors are not yet available so that the entrepreneur can decide
              whether  these  missing  factors  can  be  produced—as  the  Wright
              Brothers decided in respect to the missing mathematics—or whether
              the innovation had better be postponed as not yet feasible.
                 The  Wright  Brothers  exemplify  the  method  at  its  best.  They
              thought through carefully what knowledge was necessary to build an
              airplane for manned, motored flight. Next they set about to develop
              the pieces of knowledge that were needed, taking the available infor-
              mation, testing it first theoretically, then in the wind tunnel, and then
              in  actual  flight  experiments,  until  they  had  the  mathematics  they
              needed to construct ailerons, to shape the wings, and so on.
                 The  same  analysis  is  needed  for  nontechnical  knowledge-based
              innovation. Neither J. P. Morgan nor Georg Siemens published their
              papers; but Shibusawa in Japan did. And so we know that he based his
              decision to forsake a brilliant government career and to start a bank on
              a careful analysis of the knowledge available and the knowledge need-
              ed. Similarly, Joseph Pulitzer analyzed carefully the knowledge need-
              ed when he launched what became the first modern newspaper, and
              decided that advertising had to be invented and could be invented.
                 If  I  may  inject  a  personal  note,  my  own  success  as  an
              innovator  in  the  management  field  was  based  on  a  similar
              analysis  in  the  early  1940s.  Many  of  the  required  pieces  of
              knowledge  were  already  available:  organization  theory,  for
              instance,  but  also  quite  a  bit  of  knowledge  about  managing
              work  and  worker.  My  analysis  also  showed,  however,  that
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