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Obstacles to progress

Distortions

civil conflicts. We also provide suggestive evidence that the effects are most pronounced
in countries with a recent history of civil conflict

***
Our findings show that the concerns of critics are very real and that US food aid indeed

promotes civil conflict on average. An increase in US food aid increases the incidence of
armed civil conflict in recipient countries. US food aid does not crowd out other forms of

aid or aid from other donors. Thus, the increase in conflict is really due to an increase in
aid.
The effects we find are due to aid prolonging existing conflicts. We do not find evidence

that aid precipitates the onset of new conflicts. Consistent with this, we also find that the
adverse effects of food aid are concentrated among countries with a recent history of

civil conflict.
***
For policy makers, our results should not be interpreted in isolation, but should be taken
as one effect among many. For example, our results do not contradict the evidence for

the many benefits of emergency humanitarian aid.
US FOOD Aid
Although US food aid is comprised of many different types of food, wheat constitutes the

largest proportion of aid. During the period of our study, 1971–2006, 63 percent of all
cereal food aid shipments (measured by weight) was wheat, and 58 percent of all food

aid shipments was wheat. The United States is the largest donor of food aid in the world,
accounting for approximately 58 percent of global food aid in 1990 and 64 percent in

2000 (Barrett and Maxwell 2005, p. 12).8 In terms of wheat, the United States provides
68 percent of total shipments during our sample period

***
An important characteristic of US wheat aid, which is mainly governed by Public Law 480

(PL 480), is the role it plays in providing a use for surplus food production.
***
A significant proportion of the reported value of food aid consists of transportation
costs. Using data from 1999–2000, Barrett and Maxwell (2005, pp. 166–168) estimate

that only 47 percent of the total value of food aid is the actual value of the commodity
itself.

The other 53 percent is accounted for by transportation costs. “
"US Food Aid and Civil Conflict." 319
Nunn, Nathan, and Nancy Qian.
American Economic Review 104, no. 6 (June 1, 2014): 1630–66.