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Obstacles to progress

Distortions

multinational firms, the effect of aid on income through aggregate demand and portfolio
adjustments by commercial and central banks.

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The implied leakage rate is around 7.5 percent at the sample mean and tends to increase

with the ratio of aid to GDP. The findings are consistent with aid capture in the most aid-
dependent countries. “

"Elite Capture of Foreign Aid: Evidence from Offshore Bank Accounts," n.d., 46. 322
Juel, Jørgen.
Policy Research Working Paper 9150,
World Bank Group

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“ The World Bank's Sanctions Evaluation and Suspension Office keeps track of cases

where World Bank investigations have uncovered evidence of fraud and corruption. An
analysis of cases between 2007 and 2012 found sanctionable fraud or corruption in 157

contracts worth $245 million, of which less than a third of contracts showed evidence of
sanctionable corruption.

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Enterprise surveys ask firm managers how much are the "gifts" expected in return for

winning a government contract in their sector. In 22 countries, the average is more than 5
percent of the value of the contract.

In 38 countries, the average is between 2 and 5 percent; in 52 countries the average is
below 2 percent.
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One partial measure of outcomes is project ratings. Take the World Bank, where project

outcomes are rated on a six-point scale from highly unsatisfactory to highly satisfactory.
Assume all projects rated in the bottom three categories are 'lost' and that adds up to

461 out of 1,617 projects completed 2010-2015, or about 29 percent. Be a little more
generous and assume only the bottom two categories are 'lost' and that drops to around
nine percent. “

"How Much Aid Is Really Lost to Corruption?" 323
Center For Global Development (January 2017)

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Aid & Methods of Fraud
“ As noted above, corruption infected all stages of the projects, from the preplanning

stage to contract award to the payment of invoices. In several cases officials tilted
project design towards areas in which it was easier to collect bribes, such as increased