Page 33 - 陳威豪
P. 33

表  14 : STEPS  情境下  5%  市占率之預測自由現金流量計算表  (百萬)

                                             2020      2021     2022F     2023F     2024F      2025F     2026F      2027F      2028F     2029F      2030F

             全球電動車銷售(千輛)                     3,000     6,500    6,551     7,651      9,121    11,085     11,577     14,224     17,486    21,510     26,478

             TESLA 總銷售量(輛)                  499,550  936,172  982,695  1,051,999 1,140,088 1,247,108 1,157,670  1,244,556  1,311,458 1,344,394  1,323,890

             市占率                            16.65%  14.40%  15.00%  13.75%          12.50%  11.25%       10.00%     8.75%      7.50%     6.25%      5.00%

             營業收入                           31,536  53,823  62,230        69,791    79,073    90,257     87,275     97,578    106,778  113,514     115,775

             營業成本                           24,906  40,217  43,561        48,505    54,561    61,826     59,347     65,865     71,541    75,487     76,411

             營業毛利                            6,630    13,606  18,669      21,286    24,513    28,431     27,928     31,713     35,237    38,027     39,363

             營業費用                            4,636     7,083    8,090     9,073     10,280    11,733     11,346     12,685     13,881    14,757     15,051

             營業淨利                            1,994     6,523    10,579    12,214    14,233    16,697     16,582     19,028     21,356    23,270     24,313

             所得稅準備金                           292       699     1,164     1,343      1,566     1,837     1,824       2,093     2,349      2,560      2,674

             稅後淨利                             862      5,644    9,415     10,870    12,668    14,861     14,758     16,935     19,007    20,711     21,638

             營業活動現金流量調整                      5,081     5,853    6,500     7,150      7,865     8,652     9,517      10,468     11,515    12,667     13,933

             營業活動之淨現金流                       5,943    11,497    15,915    18,020    20,533    23,512     24,275     27,403     30,522    33,377     35,572

             資本支出                           (3,157)  (6,482)  (7,130)    (7,843)    (8,628)   (9,490)  (10,439)  (11,483)  (12,632)  (13,895)  (15,284)

             自由現金流                           2,786     5,015    8,785     10,177    11,905    14,022     13,836     15,920     17,890    19,483     20,287





                                                                                    28
   28   29   30   31   32   33   34   35   36   37   38