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表 15 : SDS 情境下 5% 市占率之預測自由現金流量計算表 (百萬)
2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F
全球電動車銷售(千輛) 3,000 6,500 9,732 11,699 13,437 15,498 18,897 23,782 30,012 37,965 48,129
TESLA 總銷售量(輛) 499,550 936,172 1,459,755 1,608,571 1,679,613 1,743,536 1,889,660 2,080,890 2,250,893 2,372,819 2,406,460
市占率 16.65% 14.40% 15.00% 13.75% 12.50% 11.25% 10.00% 8.75% 7.50% 6.25% 5.00%
營業收入 31,536 53,823 92,441 106,716 116,493 126,185 142,458 163,150 183,267 200,349 210,446
營業成本 24,906 40,217 64,709 74,167 80,380 86,437 96,872 110,126 122,789 133,232 138,895
營業毛利 6,630 13,606 27,732 32,548 36,113 39,748 45,587 53,024 60,478 67,117 71,552
營業費用 4,636 7,083 12,017 13,873 15,144 16,404 18,520 21,209 23,825 26,045 27,358
營業淨利 1,994 6,523 15,715 18,675 20,969 23,344 27,067 31,814 36,653 41,072 44,194
所得稅準備金 292 699 1,729 2,054 2,307 2,568 2,977 3,500 4,032 4,518 4,861
稅後淨利 862 5,644 13,986 16,621 18,662 20,776 24,090 28,315 32,621 36,554 39,332
營業活動現金流量調整 5,081 5,853 6,785 7,803 8,973 10,319 11,867 13,647 15,694 18,048 20,755
營業活動之淨現金流 5,943 11,497 20,771 24,424 27,635 31,095 35,957 41,962 48,316 54,602 60,088
資本支出 (3,157) (6,482) (7,454) (8,572) (9,858) (11,337) (13,038) (14,993) (17,242) (19,829) (22,803)
自由現金流 2,786 5,015 13,317 15,851 17,777 19,758 22,919 26,968 31,073 34,773 37,285
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